Rays Face Rangers for Second Wild Card Spot in Game 163

Tampa Bay and Texas will play fourth tiebreaker in past seven years.

By Russ Reed

There hasn’t been a tiebreaker since 2009, when the Twins walked off against the Tigers, 6-5, in 12 innings to claim the American League Central crown.  But tonight will mark the first Game 163 in four years, as the Rays and Rangers battle for a chance to play in

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Cleveland tomorrow night in the one-game A.L. Wild Card Round.

The most intriguing part of this matchup is the return of right-fielder Nelson Cruz for Texas.  Cruz has not played since Aug. 4, serving a 50-game suspension from Major League Baseball for his involvement with Biogenesis.  At the time of his suspension, Cruz was hitting .269 with 27 home runs and 76 RBIs, while slugging .511.

Cruz has been playing instructional league ball in Arizona during the suspension to stay sharp for a potential postseason run.  A sharp Cruz could be very important for Texas, since his postseason slugging percentage of .683 ranks fourth all-time in postseason history for players with at least 100 at-bats.

Despite all of the off-field intrigue, it always ultimately comes down to what happens on the field.  Two southpaws will be squaring off on the mound, as reigning A.L. Cy Young Award-winner David Price will go against the Rangers’ 22-year-old rookie Martin Perez. 

Price might not have the win-loss record everyone expected, as he’s gone 9-8 after finishing 20-5 a year ago.  In addition, his ERA this season is 3.39 compared to 2.56 last year, and he has less than 200 strikeouts for the first time since 2010. 

However, Price missed six weeks early in the season with a strained triceps, which greatly impacted his performance.  In his nine starts before the DL stint, he was 1-4 with a 5.24 ERA, unthinkable for someone a year removed from the Cy Young.  So Price has really turned it around since coming off the injury, evidenced by his 8-4 record and 2.57 ERA since July 2.

On the other side is Perez, who is 10-5 with a 3.55 ERA, which is impressive for a rookie whose home ballpark is one of the better hitters’ parks in the entire Major Leagues.  Even more impressive are the numbers he’s put up in his last 10 starts, a 7-2 record with a 3.26 ERA.  In addition, right-handers Alexi Ogando and Matt Garza will be available out of the bullpen to back the rookie up, and all-star closer Joe Nathan will be waiting in the wings.

Even though Rangers Ballpark in Arlington makes things tougher on Perez, it also serves to help him.  Texas is the seventh-best scoring team in the Majors when playing at home, and that was with one of its biggest offensive threats missing 50 games.  This Rangers lineup is deep and can absolutely mash, hitting 85 homers in Arlington.  The home-field advantage also helps Texas against Price, who’s ground-out to fly-out ratio this season is below his career average.

But most people might underestimate the speed this team has.  Texas is second in the MLB with 148 stolen bases, with 41 coming from shortstop Elvis Andrus, who is also the team’s leading run-scorer.  Also, the centerfield platoon of Leonys Martin and Craig Gentry have combined to swipe 60 bags.  This could spell doom for the Rays, as their catchers caught only 21 percent of base-stealers, the third-worst mark in the Bigs.

It will be interesting to see where Ron Washington places Nelson Cruz on the field tonight.  Since Alex Rios has produced well since moving to Texas as Cruz’s replacement, Washington could pencil the slugger in as the designated hitter.  Or, he could move either Rios or Cruz to left field, opening up the DH spot for a number of other players.

No matter who Washington puts in the starting lineup, he will have plenty of capable hitters on the bench that could pinch-hit in a big spot.  That could include Lance Berkman, David Murphy, Geovany Soto, and Jeff Baker.  Plus, he will have a couple of pinch-running options as well.  Either Martin or Gentry will not get the start, and Washington could also call on phenom Jurickson Profar for his speed.

Although the Rangers have won seven in a row with a dangerous lineup, the Rays might have one that is just as deep.  Tampa Bay has pop at each position, with Evan Longoria leading the way with 31 home runs.  There are almost too many options for Joe Maddon when it comes to picking his lineup for tonight.  Matt Joyce, David DeJesus, or Desmond Jennings will get squeezed out of the lineup.  Delmon Young will probably get the start at DH with a lefty on the mound, but that leaves Luke Scott and Kelly Johnson on the bench.

Jose Molina handles the catching duties for David Price, but Jose Lobaton has better numbers at the plate, and could pinch-hit in a key spot in the game.  Finally, Tampa will have Sean Rodriguez on the bench, who can play any spot in the infield.  Both the flexibility of Rodriguez and starting second baseman Ben Zobrist defensively give Maddon a lot of options.

Tampa Bay does a tremendous job of working counts and getting on base.  The Rays are second in Major League Baseball in walks, which could be crucial in a game against a rookie pitcher who is pitching the biggest game of his life.

And if the Rays have a lead in the ninth, there is no doubt that Fernando Rodney will get the ball.  Rodney is 37 for 45 in save opportunities with 82 strikeouts in 66.2 innings pitched.  On the other hand, getting to the closer with a lead has been an issue lately for Tampa Bay.  Setup man Joel Peralta has struggled as of late, going 1-4 with a 5.40 ERA in the month of September.

I would bet that this will be one of the best games we will see all season.  In an elimination game with two teams that are as deep offensively as anybody in baseball, I would expect nothing less.  It’s going to come down to who can pitch better.  For the Rays, it’s a franchise player a year removed from winning the Cy Young who hasn’t had the season he, or anyone else, quite expected.  And for the Rangers, a 22-year-old rookie who is a pleasant surprise and has been red-hot of late takes the ball in the biggest game of the year so far.  First pitch can’t get here soon enough.