Assessing the Relegation Battle

By Jonathan Gault

After this weekend’s fixtures, we’re over one-third of the way through the 2013-14 Premier League season. Most of the analysis in this space has focused on the clubs near the top, but with Martin Jol’s firing on Sunday, it’s a good time to check in on the teams occupying the bottom three spots in the table. Jol’s old club, Fulham, are 18th with 10 points, three away from safety. Below the Cottagers are the only other two clubs to change managers this season – 19th place Sunderland (who sacked Paolo Di Canio on Sept. 22) and last-place Crystal Palace (who parted with Ian Holloway on Oct. 23 by mutual consent). Let’s take a closer look at what’s gone wrong for each club so far this season.

Fulham

Manager: Rene Meulensteen

Points: 10 (three from safety)

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What’s gone wrong: Fulham’s defense has been poor, conceding 24 goals (1.85 per game), tied for most in the Premier League. With Mark Schwarzer in goal last season, Fulham allowed just 1.58 per game. But Fulham let Schwarzer go and signed Maarten Stekelenburg as his replacement. Stekelenburg missed several weeks with an injury and has lost five of his six starts since returning to the lineup on Oct. 21. The Cottagers could also use some help in defense as the trio of Elsad Sverotic, Aaron Hughes and Fernando Amorebieta has struggled this season.

The attack hasn’t been much better, as Fulham’s 11 goals (0.85 per game) is also well below its 2012-13 rate (1.32 per game). There’s talent in the squad – Dimitar Berbatov, Damien Duff and Darren Bent are all proven goalscorers – but it hasn’t shown up on the pitch. Berbatov has scored just once after netting 15 times last year, Bent hasn’t hit double-digit goals in the league since 2009-10, and Duff, at 34 years old, has seen better days.

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The good news is that Fulham’s team is much better prepared to wage a relegation battle than Sunderland or Crystal Palace. Fulham may be short on youth, but the nucleus of last year’s 12th place team is intact. The current five-game losing streak is partially due to a tough stretch of games (at Southampton, vs. Man United, at Liverpool, vs. Swansea, at West Ham) and Fulham plays three of its next four at home. It’s been bad so far, but with a few signings in the January transfer window, the Cottagers could well avoid the drop.

Sunderland

Manager: Gus Poyet

Points: 8 (five from safety)

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What’s gone wrong: A disastrous start under Paolo Di Canio (one point from their first eight games) had the Black Cats bottom of the table and seemingly destined for relegation. But since Gus Poyet took over, Sunderland has beaten Newcastle and Man City and looked to be heading toward a win over Man United before Adnan Januzaj’s heroics.

However, the team still has issues, ranking second-last in goals scored with eight and tied for last in goals allowed, with 24. No player has more than two goals on the year, and Sunderland are also responsible for 43 percent of woeful Crystal Palace’s goals (and points) after an embarrassing 3-1 loss on Aug. 31.

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Replacing Di Canio was a necessity, and the team has looked better under Poyet. Sebastian Larsson is always a threat from free kicks, and Italians Emanuele Giaccherini and Fabio Borini have impressed in their first seasons on Wearside. Still, this is a weak squad overall and they’ll need an influx of talent to avoid the drop. It would also help if American forward Jozy Altidore could recapture some of his AZ Alkmaar form, with whom he scored 38 goals in the past two seasons in the Dutch Eredivisie.

Crystal Palace

Manager: Tony Pulis

Points: 7 (six from safety)

What’s gone wrong: Like the previous two teams, Palace has struggled on both ends of the pitch, ranking last in goals scored (seven) and fourth-last in goals allowed (22). Palace signed a lot of players in the offseason, but few have looked up to the challenge of Premier League football. Captain Mile Jedinak is capable, but much of the rest of the squad has struggled. The Eagles’ top scorer last year, Glenn Murray, is still recovering from a knee injury suffered in last year’s playoffs against Brighton, and though he would have been unlikely to replicate his 30-goal form of 2012-13, he would have offered more than Marouane Chamakh or Cameron Jerome. 24-year-old Dwight Gayle has flashed talent, scoring against Liverpool at Anfield, but he will need to be more consistent for Palace to have any chance of staying up.

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Palace has had a hard time remaining in the Premier League, as each of its four previous stays has lasted just one year. Unfortunately, the Eagles seem headed for another early exit this year. In all honesty, Palace probably went up a year too early, as Holloway guided the team up through the Championship playoffs after taking over in November 2012 and engineering a fifth-place finish. The return of on-loan forward Wilfried Zaha to Manchester United – whose two goals against Brighton were critical in securing promotion – weakened the team. Add that to Murray’s injury and the failure of the new signings to adjust, and you’ve got a recipe for disaster at Selhurst Park. Pulis has a monumental task ahead of him.