Dead Cat Bounce?

Is Firing the Coach Really Worth It?

By Jonathan Gault

Note: This was written prior to the Aston Villa-Arsenal game on Monday

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After losing two cup games by a combined score of 11-0 last week, West Ham manager Sam Allardyce was under heavy pressure to get something out of the Hammers’ match at Cardiff on Saturday. His squad delivered, as goals from Carlton Cole and Mark Noble – the best player on the pitch – gave West Ham a 2-0 victory despite playing the final 20 minutes with 10 men. The win lifted the Hammers out of the relegation zone on goal difference ahead of, coincidentally, Cardiff.

Some of the pressure lobbied at Allardyce was unfair. He didn’t play full-strength teams in either of the cup games, and though West Ham entered Saturday winless in its last seven Premier League games, three of those contests were against Liverpool, Manchester United and Arsenal. But firings are rarely fair in English football, and that’s due to the promotion/relegation system.

Three teams must be relegated from the Premier League every season. This is undisputable. And, by definition, a few more teams must occupy spots 15, 16 and 17 in the table – close to the relegation zone. But because every chairman is convinced that his team isn’t allowed to be one of them, a losing streak or extended stay near the bottom usually results in a new manager.

Already this season, there have been six managerial changes, five of which came about because the team spent too much time in or near the relegation zone. By my count, there are seven clubs in the Premier League who will consistently be top-half, year after year due to the ownership structure and size of the club: Man City, Chelsea, Arsenal, Liverpool, Everton, Tottenham and Manchester United (they’re also the top seven teams in the standings right now – shock of shocks).

For everyone else, relegation is a potential problem at some point. And then it turns into one of those DirecTV commercials. When you lose, relegation becomes a possibility. When relegation becomes a possibility, the club’s board panics. When the club’s board panics, they get desperate. When they get desperate, they make a big change. When they make a big change, they fire the manager. When they fire the manager, he ends up coaching a second-division team in Croatia. Don’t coach a second-division team in Croatia.

Instead of giving a manager time to fix his mistakes (or, as is often the case, the mistakes of his predecessor), clubs will sack him to convince their fans that they’re at least doing something to get better. Outside of a big January signing, hiring a new manager is the only big “move” a club can to make during the season. But does this move really work?

Outside of Arsene Wenger, no Premier League manager has been in charge of his club for more than four years. Outside of Wenger, Allardyce and Alan Pardew, no PL manager has been in charge for even two full seasons. That’s a lot of change.

Listed below are all the in-season managerial changes from the past three seasons. I’ve charted the team’s points per game before the change and, next to that, the team’s points per game for the remainder of the season (all stats are Premier League only, this year’s stats through Jan. 12).

Note: I did not include Roberto Mancini, who Manchester City fired with two games to go in 2012-13

So what to conclude? After applying proper weight for games played before/after the dismissal, clubs average 1.19 points/game after letting their manager go vs. 1.02 points/game prior to making a change. And as of January 12, those 15 teams have picked up a grand total of three places in the standings.

The three teams that fired their boss while in the relegation zone were all relegated. Two of the three teams that fired their manager while in the relegation zone this season are still in the bottom three right now. Perhaps the most famous midseason replacement, Di Matteo, notably won the Champions League and FA Cup after taking over in March 2012. But Chelsea also averaged fewer points/game in the league and dropped a place in the final standings.

Overall, looking at 468 games over two-and-a-half season, the evidence does suggest that teams get a bounce from hiring a new manager. The difference pre- and post-departure (+0.17 points/game) equates to 6.46 points in a full 38-game season. That’s significant, especially for teams lower down the table.

But there are other factors that can’t be captured by statistics alone. This analysis doesn’t account for strength of schedule. And, it should be remembered, every team goes through hot and cold stretches. A team that fires its manager is normally going to be playing poorly. As much as we may like to credit a tactical innovation under a new boss as the reason for a team’s resurgence, their form over the rest of the season could just as easily be simple regression to the mean.

Ultimately, I’m not sure any of this even matters to the board of a Premier League club. Any board members reading this article (a guy can dream, right?) might see that teams average more points/game after firing their manager and go that route without a second thought. Or, more likely, they’ll hold on to the belief that they have to change something, anything to get their team away from the relegation zone – even though five to six teams must necessarily be there at all times.

There are only 20 Premier League manager jobs available and there’s a long list of ex-players who’d jump at the chance to grab one. In 2014, a short life expectancy comes with the territory, for better or worse.