Can Liverpool Do It?

Your Weekly Premier League Roundup

By Jonathan Gault

Liverpool Football Club was in a state of turmoil in May 2013. From 2000-2009, Liverpool finished among the Premier League’s top five every single year. But the club was just seventh in 2012-13, its fourth consecutive season outside the top five. The Reds’ best player, Luis Suarez, was in the middle of a 10-game suspension for biting Chelsea’s Branislav Ivanovic and would miss the first six games of 2013-14; his future at the club would remain uncertain for most of the summer. The team was on its third manager in as many seasons, with Brendan Rodgers following unsuccessful spells from Roy Hodgson and Kenny Dalglish. The club that had become synonymous with success during the 1970s and 1980s had gone 23 years without a title and didn’t appear close to ending that drought anytime soon.

But not everything was bad. Suarez, despite engendering controversy, finished as the league’s second-leading scorer with 23 goals in just 33 games. Daniel Sturridge, whom Rodgers signed from Chelsea in January, added 10 in 14 appearances. The Reds finished unbeaten over their last eight league games and won three of their final four without Suarez, including a 6-0 away win at Newcastle. And instead of serving as a nice highlight in an otherwise disappointing year, that run instead provided a glimpse into the future of Liverpool Football Club.

Flash forward 10 months and Liverpool is, improbably, neck-deep in a title fight. The Reds currently occupy the second spot in the table, four points behind Chelsea, level with Arsenal and two in front of Man City, which has two games in hand. Suarez and Sturridge have formed one of the most dynamic strikeforces in Premier League history (42 goals through 28 team games, though the two have missed 13 games combined). Raheem Sterling and Jordan Henderson have both improved rapidly, and the result is a squad that has averaged 3.22 goals per game since Jan. 1. If Liverpool can average exactly 3 goals per game over its final 10 fixtures, it will tie Chelsea’s record of 103 goals in a Premier League season. The title, a distant pipe dream in May, is a distinct, though difficult, possibility.

What makes it difficult is the presence of two elite teams, Chelsea and Man City, and a third, Arsenal, that has begun to fade but cannot be discounted entirely. Liverpool may be playing its best football of the season (averaging 2.55 points per game over its last 9 matches), but so too is Chelsea (2.54 over its last 13).

Though four top-four matchups remain, they comprise a small percentage of the teams’ remaining schedules. Those games undoubtedly carry more weight than the others, but it is unlikely that all four teams will win every single game against weaker competition.  So let’s take a look at how each team’s remaining fixtures shape up – and which team stands to benefit the most.

Chelsea (1st, 63 points)

Chelsea lacks the firepower of City or Liverpool, but the Blues are the most complete team in the league. Their defense allows just 0.79 goals per game and unlike Liverpool (Martin Skrtel and Kolo Toure) or City (Martin Demichelis), there’s no obvious weakness to exploit. Chelsea’s forwards have struggled to score goals, but its main midfield attacking threats – Ramires, Frank Lampard and Eden Hazard – create lots of chances for defenders, midfielders and forwards alike.

Final 10: Spurs, @Aston Villa, Arsenal, @Crystal Palace, Stoke, @Swansea, Sunderland, @Liverpool, Norwich, @Cardiff

Average opponent’s points per game: 1.30

Notes: Chelsea’s finishing fixtures are the easiest of any of the top four. The trip to Liverpool on April 27 is the big one here, and could be a de facto elimination game at that point. If Chelsea can win at Anfield, it will be in good position to win the title with winnable games against Norwich and Cardiff to close. The only complicating factor: Chelsea could be the only title contender remaining in the Champions League, and the semi-finals would be sandwiched around the Liverpool match.

Liverpool (2nd, 59 points)

Since we discussed Liverpool earlier, let’s go straight to the stats.

Final 10: @Man United, @Cardiff, Sunderland, Spurs, @West Ham, Man City, @Norwich, Chelsea, @Crystal Palace, Newcastle

Average opponent’s points per game: 1.44

Notes: Liverpool’s schedule is tougher than average and its final three games are harder than anyone else’s. The Reds lost to both Man City and Chelsea earlier this season, but at least they get the luxury of playing both teams at Anfield the second time around. One more benefit: since Liverpool got knocked out of the FA Cup and didn’t qualify for Europe, it’s the only title contender that can focus entirely on the league.

Arsenal (3rd, 59 points)

Arsenal was unlucky to lose to Stoke at the weekend on a debatable handball call, but Gunners fans can’t really argue they deserved much more than a draw. Arsenal had just two shots on target all game. After spending most of the season at the top, this could be the end of the line.

Final 10: @Spurs, @Chelsea, Man City, @Everton, West Ham, @Hull, Newcastle, West Brom, @Norwich, Swansea (date TBA)

Average opponent’s points per game: 1.48

Notes: Arsenal’s schedule is the toughest of any contender. The four-game stretch that Arsenal is about to endure is probably the most difficult that any team will face this season, especially considering that three of the four are away from home. Though the other six games offer a chance to regain points, it is hard to see Arsenal emerging unscathed from games against Chelsea and City. If the Gunners are to win their first trophy since 2005, they will have truly earned it.

Manchester City (4th, 57 points)

Aside from a one-week stretch in February when it lost to Chelsea and drew with Norwich, City has been almost unbeatable since the middle of November (a 1-1 draw at Southampton on December 7 was the only other blemish). City should also get a nice boost once Sergio Aguero and Fernandinho return from injury.

Final 12: @Hull, Fulham, @Man United, @Arsenal, Southampton, @Liverpool, West Brom, @Crystal Palace, @Everton, West Ham, Aston Villa (date TBA), Sunderland (date TBA)

Average opponent’s points per game: 1.33

Notes: The home games should produce maximum points, but the away fixtures, with which City struggled early this season, are brutal. Crystal Palace has been feisty since Tony Pulis took over and apart from Hull, the other four games are all incredibly difficult. Further complicating things is City’s participation in four competitions this season. Though the Capital One Cup is over and the Champions League will be soon (barring a miracle on March 12 at the Nou Camp), extended cup runs and a weather postponement will have City playing a bunch of midweek fixtures. It may have the depth up front to handle such a load, but it will be difficult for the defense to play that many games without cracking. 

Final thought

Managers often say that no game is easy in the Premier League, and though it’s a cliché, it becomes true at the end of the season. Two years ago, Manchester City needed two injury-time goals to beat clinch the title at home against lowly QPR. Though this year’s title race probably won’t top that in terms of drama, my point is that nothing is certain in sports. Each game on the contenders’ schedule carries the potential to be “that game” that coaches and fans look back on in June as the one that cost their team the title. But until we gain Minority Report-style powers of prediction, we’ll have to keep watching every week to find out when “that game” happens.