2011’s Surprises That Shouldn’t Surprise You

We look into our famed crystal ball to bring you three surprises for the upcoming season. Spoiler alert. by Mike Izzo

Every baseball season has its share of surprises, but they also have a few that should never have been surprises at all. Was it really that hard to envision Josh Hamilton’s return to form following an injury-plagued 2009 campaign? How about Cliff Lee becoming the trade bait of the year following Seattle’s underwhelming start? If you think about it, these things could have easily been predicted at the beginning of last season.

1.) Matt Garza dominates in first season with the Cubs

Am I the only one out there that thinks Garza’s got some of the best stuff in baseball? A young but experienced pitcher whose first three full years in the majors resulted in 94 starts, an ERA of around 3.86, and a World Series appearance. Oh, and a no-hitter last July. Now he’s making the transition from the brutal AL East to the much more comfortable NL Central. The switch to the National League is always great for a pitcher as they almost always yield better results in the pitcher-friendly league. Greinke may have been the more publicized trade this winter for the division, but I expect Garza to turn into a Cy Young-worthy pitcher this season, and have the Cubs winning a tight divisional race.

2.) Derek Jeter wins comeback player of the year

Few have had as publicized a contract negotiation as Derek Jeter did this off-season. Following the worst statistical season of his career, Jeter entered negotiations with an asking price too high for an aging shortstop that appeared to have lost his swing. Yet the Yankees wanted to keep their captain and five-time champion, and both sides knew he would get the best deal by staying put. Inevitably, Jeter re-signed with the Yankees, but not before taking a lot of unnecessary jabs to his reputation. The negotiations were just too public, and every media outlet was picking him apart. All this leads Jeter to a very unfamiliar and unexpected scenario: comeback player of the year.

It sounds a little crazy but think about it. This award can be interpreted in many different ways. For some it means coming back from a down season, others an injury, or simply excelling at an old age. So doesn’t this make him the perfect candidate? Following a down year and rough contract negotiation, the aging short stop hitting .300 would surely put him in contention for the award. And anyone who thinks he cannot hit .300 this year is underestimating Jeter. Nobody is more upset with his 2010 campaign than Jeter himself. He’s spent his offseason re-tooling his swing. Sure, he’s lost a step or two in the field, but his bat will be just fine.

3.) The nation finally recognizes Andrew McCutchen's talent. Subsequently, he becomes the year’s biggest trade bait

Oh, the Pittsburgh Pirates. Endlessly “rebuilding,” only to trade away every asset they have every other trade deadline to start rebuilding all over again. Which leads us to their star player: Andrew McCutchen. Much like Jason Bay before him, McCutchen is a hot property that Pitt should hold onto, but likely won’t want to fork over the cash necessary to keep him.

The last time the Pirates kept a player as talented as McCutchen, it was over a decade ago in Jason Kendall, who they signed to a six-year $60 million deal, a franchise record. McCutchen will likely earn even more than that, which is why the Pirates will foolishly trade him away in the next couple of years. My guess is that year is 2011, and he will be the best bat on the market. Sure, Pittsburgh will likely get some great prospects in return (the best of which they will likely sell in later years continuing this cruel, fan-mocking cycle), but it won’t match the production of their best player anytime soon. So don’t be surprised if you see Andrew McCutchen in the playoffs come October. By now, you should know better.