Just a Bit Outside

A one-sided league has small market fans hoping for a miracle this upcoming baseball season. By Jeff Laboon

AP Photo/Jeff Roberson

While some fan bases can look at the 2011 MLB season with anticipation, most already know that their team's season will be for naught (Jason Krakower feels my pain). It's easy to look on the 2011 Pittsburgh Pirates roster and claim that they have a legitimate chance to shock some teams, especially in the competitive NL Central. Then again, I don't bother with fairy tales. Most fan bases have to hold onto the hope that they will be pleasantly surprised by their team's performance - i.e. 2010 San Diego Padres, 2007 Colorado Rockies, and 2005 Cleveland Indians to name a few - and the Pirates are no exception.

That's the sad state of affairs in MLB. Parity does not exist. Granted, only 26.67 percent of teams can make the postseason in a given year (53 percent in the NBA and NHL and 37.5 percent in the NFL), but this low percentage has been the case for years. From 1969 (24 MLB teams) to 1993 (28 MLB teams), only four teams made the postseason - two from each league. That's only 16.667 percent from 1969 to 1992 and 14.29 percent in 1993. At 162 games, MLB offers the longest season for the slightest chance of reward. This only makes the World Series title that much more prestigious. If 16 teams can make the postseason, that tarnishes the title substantially.

No, the problem lies with the financial structure. A franchise like the San Diego Padres, with a 2010 opening day payroll of $38 million, according to Cot's Baseball Contracts, cannot compete long-term when that payroll is only half of the Cincinnati Reds, who have the 20th highest in the league. The Reds cannot even compete long-term when their payroll is less than half of that of the Boston Red Sox, who have the second highest behind only the New York Yankees.

Figures from Cot's Baseball Contracts

But this trend will not change. A salary floor may be instituted, but MLB needs a salary cap. Salary floors encourage spending, but a salary cap actually helps to level the playing field between the profitable and the struggling clubs. Carl Crawford (below), former outfielder for the Tampa Bay Rays, signed a seven-year, $142 million contract with the Boston Red Sox this off-season. The Red Sox could outbid the Rays for any player they want because of their larger payroll. While part of Crawford wanted to stay with the Rays, the franchise that drafted him in 1999, the writing was on the wall when the front office announced that payroll would be down from $72 million in 2011. Ultimately, the Rays could only pray that star free agents Crawford, Carlos Pena, and Rafael Soriano would take a "hometown discount" to stay with the team. Each player, though, signed lucrative offers with other teams.

AP Photo/Winslow Townson

Without any salary cap, fans of losing teams have come to assume that their stars are all-but-gone once they turn from prospects into regulars. If I had a nickel for every time someone told me that Pittsburgh Pirates General Manager Neal Huntington will trade Andrew McCutchen this season, I would be one rich bastard. The Pirates have control of McCutchen for six years of MLB service time. So, since he debuted in June 2009, he will not be a free agent until after the 2015 season. But, unless McCutchen wants to take a discounted offer to stay with the Pirates, the team will have a hard time keeping him in when he enters the open market.

The San Diego Padres would have faced a similar crisis in 2012 with the impending free agency of Adrian Gonzalez, but they chose to be pro-active and trade the superstar to the Boston Red Sox last December. The Padres already had the lowest opening day payroll in 2010. Now, they are without the face of their franchise.

But the MLB Players Association, MLBPA, and successful owners would be ludicrous to allow the league to institute a salary cap after decades of cap-less baseball. A decrease in salary? No union would go for that, including the MLBPA. Less bidding power in the open market? Owners will not go for that either. That's why the fans in markets like Pittsburgh and Cleveland have to hope for a salary floor because that's the only semblance of a cap that the league will see for a longtime.

AP Photo/Mary Butkus

That's not to say that these small market franchises have not experienced their share of success. The Indians, for example, built an AL Central dynasty from 1995 to 2001 that yielded two AL Pennants. Since 2001, though, the franchise has had only two winning seasons (2005 and 2007). Likewise, the Pirates built a brief dynasty around Barry Bonds from 1990 to 1992 that resulted in three NL East titles. Bonds and pitching ace Doug Drabek left Pittsburgh following the 1992 postseason for more money in San Francisco and Houston, respectively. The franchise has not had a winning season since. A large part of the Pirates struggles involve bad roster moves like signing shortstop Pat Mears to a four year, $14.7 million contract - the figure according to baseball-reference. But, the Pirates would not have taken such a risk if they shared the same bidding power as high payroll franchises. Big market franchises have a serious advantage each season because they can build their club through free agency. Small market franchises, however, need to build through the draft and trade everyday players for prospects, who are rarely MLB-ready talent.

AP Photo/Ben Margot

The window for contention closes quickly for a team that builds this way. The club only has a player for six years of service time until they can become an unrestricted free agent. The first two years after a prospect's rookie season are reserve for surrounding him with other young talent and allowing the group to become accustomed to the majors. By the time this group develops, the franchise is in year three or four of the first star's service time, meaning he will be a free agent in two or three years. The organization hopes this process repeats, building a revolving door of young, talented contenders. In some cases, it does and the general manager looks like a genius. Billy Beane and his "moneyball" strategy kept the Oakland Athletics competitive for years despite a low budget. The A's strung together eight winning seasons (none of which resulted in anything better than an ALCS appearance) from 1999 to 2006. The A's featured stars like Barry Zito, Mark Mulder, Tim Hudson, Joe Blanton, Rich Harden, Huston Street, Aaron Harang, Jason Isringhausen, Dan Haren, Nick Swisher, Miquel Tejada, Johnny Damon, and Jason Giambi (#16 above) during this time. Only Harden remains. Harden returned this off-season after lackluster stints with the Chicago Cubs and the Texas Rangers. The A's followed this eight year stretch with three losing seasons and a .500 record in 2010 as they wait for the next crop of talent to bloom in the minors.

AP Photo/Keith Srakocic

The Pittsburgh Pirates hope to build a similar system for contention. The organization spent a franchise-record $11.9 million on the MLB draft last year, second to only the Washington Nationals. Pirates first pick SP Jameson Taillon (right) from Woodlands High School in Texas, will likely start in low-A West Virginia this season, meaning that he will have a few years until he reaches the majors. The movement through the minors varies for each individual, though. Pedro Alvarez, the second-overall pick by the Pirates in 2008, took two years to reach the majors, while Stephen Strasburg, Washington Nationals first-overall pick in 2009, debuted only after one year in the minors. Strasburg, though, will miss this season because of Tommy John surgery, an all-too-common risk for young pitches that slows some budding careers.

The team also faces a high chance that the draft pick will be a bust. Bryan Bullington, for example, the first-overall pick in 2002 by the Pittsburgh Pirates, played only six games with the ML club. He spent 2008 and 2009 with the Cleveland Indians and Toronto Blue Jays, respectively, earning only two starts and seven total appearances. He appeared in 13 games with the Kansas City Royals in 2010, but the Royals released the 30-year-old in November. Stories like Bullington's are common. The 30 organizations combine to draft 1,525 players in the span of 50 rounds. Only 25 players can be on the ML club, meaning that only 750 players will be on opening day rosters. General managers that can build with free agency have the luxury of already knowing how the player performs in the majors. Granted, he may flop on a new team, but at least the GM has some evidence to sell to his market that the free agent can perform at the highest level. It's a lot easier to sell Lyle Overbay, for example, who has appeared in over 1,100 games in 10 years, than David Rohm from Fresno Community College, who has exactly 0 ML games under his belt, to fan bases.

That's in no way to say that proposed improvements to the draft, namely a hard slotting system, would not help small market clubs. If a slot system was in place, agents could no longer issue ultimatums like "pay my client X dollars or he will return to college" because draft picks would be assigned a predetermined amount before the draft. A slot system creates more money for ownership to use in other areas of the business such as free agency, ballpark upgrades and maintenance, and international development (like building training centers in the Caribbean).

AP Photo/Keith Srakocic

Organizations like the Pirates want to take the lemon (building through the draft) and make it lemonade (three or four year span of contention). They are doing an admirable job so far. The Pirates spent $30.7 million on the draft (the most in the ML) under the current administration, which has been in place for three years. The sad fact is that GM Neal Huntington's (right) contract comes off the books after this season. Without any on the field success in the majors, Pirates fans will demand his head. At this point, anything but an extension for Huntington would be a crime. But tell the fans of a team that has not finished above .500 since 1992 that building a winning franchise takes time and they will laugh in your face. Fans want results now and they want something more tangible than a possible superstar.

Despite a lackluster record, the Pirates were one of 15 teams to experience an increase at the gate in 2010 (some more significant than others, but even a slight improvement is an improvement). But when comparing the average attendance in each of the past five seasons to the stadium's capacity, 12 teams fill less than 60 percent of the stadium. Seven franchises (Boston, Chicago Cubs, LA Angels, NY Met, NY Yankees, Philadelphia, and St. Louis) averaged 90 percent capacity or better over the past five seasons (see graph below). Of these seven, only St. Louis featured an opening day payroll less than $100 million. Natives describe St. Louis as a drinking city with a baseball problem, so attendance would not be an issue for the Cardinals.

Regardless, better attendance means better gate earnings, which means better concessions revenue. The three together means a profit for the organization. Profit increases the operating budget, which increases the team's payroll and allows them to be more active in free agency. The rich get richer. Look no further than the New York Yankees. George Steinbrenner and his ownership group bought the Bronx Bombers for $8.7 million in 1973. They now field a $213 million team. That increase comes from profit.

Figures from baseball-reference.

The New York Mets, one of the seven franchises with average attendance over 90 percent capacity, received $25 million from MLB in the midst of the financial instability of the Wilpon family caused by the pending Madoff lawsuit. The Mets paid Johan Santana (below) and Jason Bay a total of $27.5 million last season (the two will receive $39 million total this season), or more than half of the opening day payroll of the three lowest clubs (Florida, Pittsburgh, and San Diego). The Mets traded the farm away to acquire Santana from the Minnesota Twins in 2008, the final year of his then-contract. The Twins could not afford to keep Santana, so they took preventive action to ensure that they received some value before he left for free agency. Granted, they would have received compensatory draft picks had they lost Santana in free agency. 

AP Photo/Jim Mone, file

Jason Bay signed with the Mets in 2010. The Pittsburgh Pirates traded Bay to Boston in 2008, the second-to-last year in his then-contract. The Pirates could not afford to devote a large chuck of their payroll to one player, so they traded him for potential talent. Where is the bailout for the Pirates and Padres of the league who have to ship stars like Jason Bay and Adrian Gonzalez away?

The bigger news this off-season comes from the Philadelphia Phillies, who signed SP Cliff Lee for a five-year, $120 million contract. The projected Phillies starting rotation consists of Roy Halladay (169-86 lifetime), Lee (102-61), Roy Oswalt (150-83), Cole Hamels (60-45), and Joe Blanton (72-60). It's fair to argue that Blanton, who is supposedly the weak link of this rotation, could be the number one starter for multiple MLB teams.

Why bother to get excited when your team is already outmatched by the Phillies and Yankees of the league? Maybe your team will get hot late in the season and win the World Series in shocking fashion like the San Francisco Giants in 2010 - the same Giants who spent $98 million last year, their highest payroll in the past 10 seasons. Sadly, unless you love one of the 15 organizations that can afford to build through free agency, the looming MLB season ended before it even started.