Sunday, May 22, 2011

The Conference Finals

Like the commercial says, history is just one step away. Oritt Blum is here to tell us the two teams who will just be one small step from the Stanley Cup.

Tampa Bay Lightning vs. Boston Bruins: Eastern Conference Finals.


Not going to sugarcoat it–the Bolts are on fire. Surpassing all expectations, Tampa Bay is deadlocked with the Bruins in the Eastern Conference finals. Not that this seals either team’s deal, but it certainly gives the Lightning a boost, especially after winning game one on Boston’s stomping ground.

Both teams are hungry for victory; the Bruins haven’t seen the conference finals since 1992, while Tampa Bay makes its second-ever appearance. Its first was in 2004, when the team went on to win the Stanley Cup.
And yes, Mark Recchi was in the league when the Bruins last made the Finals

The Bruins and the Lightning are both teams with talent, heart, hunger, grit, and impressive coaching.

Points off the Bench: Boston has been feeling the absence of Patrice Bergeron, who sustained a concussion from a hit during Round 2. Chris Kelly was moved up to the second line, centering Brad Marchand and Mark Recchi. So far this postseason, the Bergeron-Marchand–Recchi unit has combined for 11 goals and 32 points in 15 games.

New Contracts for Everybody!

Meanwhile, Tampa Bay has seen a huge boost from its second-third and fourth lines. Sean Bergenheim has a team-best nine goals in the postseason, while Dominic Moore tallied 11 points in 15 games.

Goaltending: This is arguably the closest goaltending matchup in conference finals history. The two best goalies still in the running for the Stanley Cup, and their statistics are nearly identical.

The Tampa Bay goalie, 41-year-old Dwayne Roloson, holds one of the top goals-against average (2.51) and save percentage (.925) in the playoffs. Bruins goalie Tim Thomas, 37, led the league in both those categories during the regular season and is just ahead of Roloson in the playoffs, with a 2.34 goals-against average and a .929 save percentage.

Man Advantage: Boston’s penalty kill has not been looking pretty, as its ranked 10th out of the 16 teams in the playoffs. They are also playing without their top penalty killer, Patrice Bergeron, who only recently returned to the lineup.

Unfotunately for the Bruins, Tampa Bay has been red-hot with the man advantage. They lead the league with 14 power-play goals in the postseason, but they don’t just depend on one or two guys for the points. The Bolts have 14 different players with points on the power play and seven of them have goals.

If you play on the Tampa Bay Lightning, you'll probably see time on the powerplay.
When the Bruins are on the man advantage, they haven’t fared as well. They went 0-for-30 to start the playoffs and have only scored four times in the entire postseason. Boston is now facing Tampa Bay, a team that has given up a mere five goals on 69 penalty kills this postseason.


Physical Play: In my opinion, Boston’s size and high level of physicality should be Tampa Bay’s biggest concerns. The Bruins boast one of the biggest and grittiest defenses in the national hockey league. The unit averages 6'2.5" and 213 pounds a man.

The Lightning, in contrast, is a smaller, speedier team. Once they find ways to penetrate through Boston’s tough defense, they’re up against one of the league’s finest goaltenders. Tampa Bay has some physical players, including Steve Downie, Nate Thompson and Ryan Malone, but overall, the team’s physical strength can’t match Boston’s.

Prediction: Lightning in 7. This was a really hard one for me to call, but so many games have come down to the power-play. Tampa Bay has that edge, along with speed that Boston really struggled against in Game 1.

San Jose Sharks vs. Vancouver Canucks, Western Conference Finals


The Sharks should be feeling pretty comfortable right now after making it to the Western Conference Finals for the second year in a row. This year, they had to storm through the Los Angeles Kings in six games and the Detroit Red Wings in seven games to get to where they are.

Vancouver, on the other hand, hasn’t seen the ice of the final four since 1994. They eliminated the Chicago Blackhawks in seven games and the Nashville Predators in six.

These teams are eerily similar: both have had steady regular seasons for the past few years, both have maintained the same core players on the team and both have a long history of choking in the postseason.

Who Will Make the Difference: For San Jose it’s going to be whichever blue liners can keep up with Canucks hotshot Ryan Kesler, Vancouver’s leading postseason scorer. These players come in the form of Douglas Murray, Niclas Wallin, Ian White, and Jason Demers. The Sharks have also gotten major offensive contributions from Logan Couture, Devin Setoguchi and Joe Pavelski.
It has been suggested that Murray is the inspiration for the title character of "Thor."
For the Canucks, the answer is as simple as Roberto Luongo. I don’t think that needs to be explained.




Goaltending: San Jose goalie Antti Niemi has the chance to be the first goalie since Hap Holmes in 1916-1917 to win the Stanley Cup two years in a row with two different teams (he won it with the Chicago Blackhawks last season). He has a 3.28 goals-against average and a .900 save percentage.

He also adds needed experience in the "beard-growing" department.
On the other hand, the Canucks goalie, Roberto Luongo, has never made it farther in the playoffs. He holds a 2.40 goals-against average and a .915 save percentage.

Power Duos: San Jose’s captain Joe Thornton and Patrick Marleau have often been criticized for failing to bring their team far in the postseason after great regular seasons. This playoffs, however, the dynamic duo has been bringing the fire and were two key components to their game seven win against the Red Wings (Marleau scored the winning goal with 7:47 left in the third period).


The Canuck’s have never shied away from keeping their secret weapon a secret. The Sedin brothers, Henrik and Daniel, have played together for Vancouver since being drafted from Sweden. They won the last two scoring titles in the NHL, but this postseason, they have been unusually quiet, struggling in both rounds against Chicago and Nashville. Currently, they have a combined minus-14 playoff rating.

Prediction: San Jose in 6. Unless the Sedin brothers start playing like a 2008 version of themselves, the Sharks are going to take this series. They’re too determined to let their first chance at the Stanley Cup finals slip away.

–Oritt Blum

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