Kro's Nest: Week 4 Edition

A look-in to the fantasy world of a New York Giants fan who's juggling between three teams and relying on his bitter rivals for success. By Jon Krouner Disclaimer: The following views expressed are those of Jon Krouner. They do not necessarily reflect the views of Extra Point or its broskis.

(AP Photo/Alex Brandon)

     Boardwalk Empire premiered its second season last Sunday night on HBO. This meant two things: One, Entourage is mercifully kaput. And two, Nucky Thompson is going to have some people killed while dealing out some brilliant fantasy football knowledge.
     Below are a few quotes from last week’s episode “21” that I compare to the world of fantasy football. Bottoms up.


“I’m afraid he’s developed a fascination with fire.” – Margaret Schroeder


     Mike Vick is more than fascinated with fire. He’s a pyromaniac. In Week 2, he suffered a concussion after running into his own lineman. In Week 3, he suffered a deep bone bruise in his non-throwing hand that was originally thought to be broken. It’s likely that fantasy owners took a huge gamble on Vick (thanks for nothing, Matthew Berry) which hasn’t begun to pay off dividends. Vick’s playing style and fragile frame lends himself to the risk of going down with a major injury at any time. Hopefully, if you drafted Vick, you also drafted a usable QB like Kevin Kolb or Ryan Fitzpatrick. If not, pick one up and pray.
     Week 4 options (in order): Jason Campbell (OAK, QB) vs. NE, Matt Hasselbeck (TEN, QB) @ CLE, Rex Grossman (WSH, QB) @ STL


“Nothing cures [Torrio] faster than someone else doing his laundry.” – George Remus


     First round running backs, Chris Johnson and Rashard Mendenhall have been anything but first round caliber these first three weeks. Johnson has only 98 yards on 46 carries for a miserable a 2.1 yards per carry, 0 TDs and a long run of 9 yards. Nine! Mendenhall has been slightly better, but not good. He has 148 yards on 49 carries for 3 YPC and 1 TD.
     If you drafted one of these guys, you’re likely relying on them for—at the very least—double digit points each week and to carry your team in big games. I’d still advocate holding onto them because you’re not going to get back nearly what you paid for them.
     Maybe if Javon Ringer starts doing CJ’s laundry, err, stealing carries from Johnson and Isaac Redman/Melwede Moore from Mendenhall, these guys will kick it in to gear. With star wideout Kenny Britt out for the year, Johnson’s ability to get on track becomes that much tougher. Still, you have to start them every week. Smoke ’em if you got ’em.


“How does it feel to have everything?” – Richard Harrow
(Wide-eyed look of insanity) – Jimmy Darmody

(AP Photo/Carlos Osorio)

     It seems right now that the Buffalo Bills, Detroit Lions and New England Patriots offenses have everything. Although, I’m having trouble remembering the last time a team, of any kind, won a championship in Week 3.
     Look at these stats:

Fred Jackson has compiled 303 yards at a 6.1 YPC clip with 1 TD/per game. He’s on track for over 2,000 yards from scrimmage. What round did he go in your draft? 

Calvin Johnson is the first player in history to have 2 TDs in each of his team’s first 3 games. This puts him on pace for 9 more than Randy Moss’ record of 23 set in 2007.

Tom Brady has thrown for 1,327 yards in three games, a mark which puts him on pace for over 7,000 yards, eviscerating Dan Marino’s single-season record (5,054 yards) by 2K yards. He’s on pace to throw for 58 TDs, 8 more than his own record-setting 50 from 2007. 

Drew Brees and Matthew Stafford are both on pace to throw 48 TDs.

Brady’s teammate, Wes Welker is on pace to catch 160 balls for 2,442 yards—a mere 1,100 yards more than his career high.

     Look, sorry to bludgeon you over the head with stats. I’m not saying records won’t be broken this season. They will. What I am saying is that these guys listed above will—to some extent—come down to earth. These numbers are outrageous—especially in the jump from ’10 to ’11—and I don’t expect them to continue at such a breakneck pace.


     I believe defenses have had more trouble adjusting to life after the lockout than offenses (see: broken tackles everywhere) and as the season goes on these outrageous numbers will regress. It’d have to be a perfect deal to trade one of these players but that doesn’t mean you shouldn’t look into it. You might have seen Calvin Johnson’s best game but Larry Fitzgerald hasn’t played his. The Lions have shown limited ability to run the ball so Megatron can expect to see plenty of double teams going forward.


     Remember, what a player is after three games is not what he will be after 16. So Bills and Lions fans, how does it feel to have everything? (Wide-eyed look of fear).


“You will be judged by what you succeed at, not by what you attempt.” – The Commodore to Jimmy


     We just went over players who are overvalued at this point but you should target players that are either undervalued or who haven’t gotten on track just yet (cue Johnson/Mendenhall). Offer trades to try to get players who haven’t busted out just yet.


     Here’s an example of a trade I recently pulled off:

Received: Michael Turner (ATL, RB)
Traded: Tim Hightower (WAS, RB), Davone Bess (MIA, WR)

     When you compare numbers through three weeks, Turner and Hightower pretty much cancel out meaning that (given, Bess) I lost in the deal. I don’t believe this to be the case, though. Turner, who was taken as a 1st round pick, has not hit his stride much—kind of like the Atlantic Falcons as a whole. I still expect him to crack double-digit TDs even though he has just one to this point. I made this trade because I believe in Turner’s long-term value and that Hightower will crash back to earth.
     My advice: Offer trades and try to steal players that have started slowly. After all, you’ll only be judged by the trades that you make. In the words of the Commodore, don’t “mollycoddle” the enemy.
     Underachieving/Undervalued players that I like: Felix Jones (DAL, RB), Ryan Grant (GB, RB), Chad Ochocinco (NE, WR), Mike Williams (TB, WR), Mario Manningham (NYG, WR), Brandon Lloyd (DEN, WR), Brandon Pettigrew (DET, TE)


Then again, “I take almost no comfort in about to, gentlemen.” – Agent Nelson Van Alden