Gonzaga Rises, But Soon They Will Fall Hard

By Matthew Rose

The latest AP Top 25 Poll places Indiana, Gonzaga, Duke, Michigan, and Miami in the top five. With league play intensifying and Conference Tournaments around the corner, the top four NCAA Tournament seeds are on the line. Excluding Gonzaga, two of the four teams in the current AP Top Five are guaranteed to lose, as they will play one another in their Conference Championship. 

AP Photo/ Jed Conklin

Conversely, Gonzaga faces BYU (20-9) and Portland (11-19) in their final two regular season games before Conference Tournament play. In their previous match-ups, Gonzaga won by twenty and twenty-two points, respectively. Further, the Bulldogs have outscored their opponents by double-digits in nine of their last ten games.

The recent trends indicate that Gonzaga is streaking and improving as the year continues. However, the Bulldogs only have one win against a team ranked in the AP Top 25 at the time of the game—a 69-68 win over Oklahoma State on December 31. Additionally, the Bulldogs fell to the only two other ranked opponents they have faced, and recently beat San Diego State (13-15) by only two points.

Mid-Majors have had great success in the NCAA Tournament in recent years, as VCU and Butler have consistently proven. Regardless, the weakness of Gonzaga’s schedule and their poor rebounding—seventy-second in the country—are vulnerabilities come March. Well-tested teams have significantly higher odds of success at the “Big Dance.”

Ultimately, Gonzaga is poised to receive a one-seed in the NCAA Tournament. They will have the opportunity to succeed with favorable matchups and with their second-ranked field goal percentage. Regardless, they are susceptible when they face stronger opponents on the nation’s largest stage.

Notes:

·      Duke Coach Mike Krzyzewski announced that he would not return to the United States National Team after seven seasons. Under Coach K, the U.S. won gold in Beijing and London, and the 2010 FIBA Championship.

·      After falling to Georgetown on Saturday, Syracuse fell to #22 Marquette on Monday 74-71.

·      Louisiana Tech moved to 25^th in the rankings with a 24-3 record, despite shooting 41.1% from the field as a team (280^th in the country).

·      Bubble Watch: Joe Lunardi’s Last Four In: Temple, Kentucky, Ole Miss, Villanova. Joe Lunardi’s First Four Out: Baylor, Indiana State, Arizona State, Southern Miss.