Getting to the Good Stuff

Your Weekly Premier League Update

By Jonathan Gault

This just might be the best Premier League season ever. The next four weeks will determine whether that is the case, but given the tightness of both the title and relegation races, there’s a compelling case to be made.

Exhibit A: Sunday’s breathless, 90-minute thrill ride that was Liverpool 3, Manchester City 2. As most Liverpool games seem to these days, it began with an early goal, and the action didn’t stop until the final whistle. If you watched all the way through, here’s what you saw: five goals; one red card; James Milner (yes, James Milner) turn around the match for City; City bring it back from 0-2 to 2-2 without Yaya Toure or Sergio Aguero; Luis Suarez avoid a red card for an obvious dive; Vincent Kompany at fault for two goals, including the match-winner; and a last-second no-call on a Martin Skrtel handball in the penalty area (that was, admittedly, difficult to locate without the benefit of replay).

Liverpool owned the first 30 minutes of the first half; City owned the first 30 minutes of the second half. Raheem Sterling made his case for a starting spot in Roy Hodgson’s World Cup team, scoring the first, setting up the second and clearing a potential City equalizer off the line. The 19-year-old’s work on the his goal – slipping unnoticed behind Kompany before taking his time and finishing at the near post – displayed a coolness that belied his youth. Milner and David Silva matched him for City in the second half, attacking from the side of the box to send dangerous balls across the face of the goal. Neither defense did itself any honors, but we expected that coming in; these are two of the greatest offenses in Premier League history. Both of these teams are deserving champions; and yet it’s possible that neither will win the title.

It begins simply enough: if Liverpool wins its remaining four matches, it will win its first Premier League title. The Reds still have to get by Chelsea on April 27, though. If Chelsea wins that one and its other three, the Blues are guaranteed to finish ahead of Liverpool. But that doesn’t guarantee them the title; if Chelsea beats Liverpool and Man City wins out, Man City will capture its second championship in three years. It’s messy, but it’s beautiful at the same time, because with three teams in the race, it’s incredibly likely that the title will still be up for grabs on the season’s final weekend.

The relegation battle isn’t likely to be settled by then either, not after Fulham and Cardiff managed to win against Norwich and Southampton, respectively, on Saturday. Five points separate 14th-place Aston Villa and 19th-place Cardiff. Only last-place Sunderland, losers of five straight, appears to be doomed at the moment. Cardiff, Norwich and Fulham remain the most likely to go down, but it’s an interesting argument about which team is in the best position. Norwich has 32 points, but little hope of increasing that total with games against Liverpool, Man U, Chelsea and Arsenal. Fulham has 30 and the worst goal difference, but home games against Hull and Crystal Palace look tempting. Cardiff has 29 but still gets to play Sunderland again, not to mention free-falling Newcastle.

I’m leaning toward Fulham because Felix Magath looks like he’s starting to figure it out, and the Cottagers’ recent struggles are, like Arsenal’s at the top, the product of a brutal schedule. In their last 10, they’ve won three, drawn two and lost five. But when you consider one of the draws was against Man U and four of the losses were against Liverpool, Chelsea, Man City and Everton, 11 points from 10 games isn’t a bad haul. I’m not convinced Norwich can score enough goals to take any points off the big boys. Cardiff may well beat Sunderland, but the one-point advantage Fulham holds over Cardiff could end up being the margin by which relegation is settled.

This is a Premier League column, but I’ll touch briefly on the FA Cup semifinals as an example of just how desperate things are at Arsenal at the moment. Wigan was unafraid of its Premier League opponent and outplayed Arsenal for the first 2/3rds of the game on Saturday. Arsenal did string together some chances in the final minutes before equalizing, and could have won it in extra time. But the fact that the Gunners needed penalties is not a good sign. Arsene Wenger’s job was already in jeopardy after Everton overtook Arsenal for the final Champions League spot. A middling performance against a lower-division side doesn’t exactly strengthen his position, even though it brought Arsenal one step closer to its first trophy since 2005. Another strike against him: the Gunners haven’t finished higher than third in league in that span. With Wenger’s contract set to expire, it’s possible that, no matter the outcome of the cup final on May 17, he could be out the door.

I suspect Arsenal will keep Wenger, however, for a couple of reasons. First: the speedy, attacking team that set the league on fire in the fall was derailed by injuries to Theo Walcott and Aaron Ramsey. Wenger can shoulder some blame for not having adequate reserves in place, but only some. Second: though Arsenal hasn’t finished higher than third since 2005, it also hasn’t finished lower than fourth in Wenger’s 17 seasons. That’s a staggering level of consistency, and it should be enough to earn Wenger a reprieve even if Arsenal misses the Champions League. There’s a case to be made for dismissal, especially if Arsenal falls to Hull in the cup final. But as Manchester United has seen, it can be difficult to replace an iconic manager. Arsenal should only take that step if it absolutely has to.

The Great Escape

Your Weekly Premier League Update

By Jonathan Gault

The bottom half of the table has been a mess most of the season, getting rejiggered on a weekly basis. There’s separation at the bottom now, with Fulham, Cardiff and Sunderland all at least five points adrift of 17th-place Norwich. Normally with five weeks to go in the season, that means that we have three very clear relegation candidates. But nothing is ever that simple in the Barclays Premier League. Here’s where we stand as of Monday morning at the bottom of the table.

West Brom, 16th, 32 pts

Matches remaining: 6

I don’t think West Brom is a particularly strong side, but it’s in the best position of any team on this list when you take into account league position, points, goal difference and matches remaining. It’s coming off a crucial win at Norwich and has a game in hand on the Canaries, as well as Fulham and Cardiff. It’s got points opportunities home vs. West Ham and Stoke and away at Sunderland; a win or three draws would push the Baggies to 35 points and likely guarantee safety.

Norwich, 17th, 32 pts

The loss to West Brom on Saturday hurts, obviously, and aside from bringing Norwich closer to relegation, it also cost manager Chris Hughton his job. Interim boss Neil Adams can’t afford to dwell on that though – this Saturday’s game at Fulham may well decide the season. Norwich closes with games against Liverpool, Man U, Chelsea and Arsenal, meaning that the Fulham match could be its last chance to put points on the board. Add in the fact that Fulham is just one place behind and a win could bring it to within two points of Norwich and this is a classic “six-pointer” if ever there was one. Sunderland was in 16th place last season on March 30 when it sacked Martin O’Neill and it managed to stay up. Can Neil Adams play the role of Paolo Di Canio and do the same for Norwich?

Fulham, 18th, 27 pts

Matches remaining: 5

Saturday’s massive win at Aston Villa showed that there is a sliver of hope peeking out behind the avalanche of goals (2.24/game) the team has allowed this season. Because its goal difference is so poor, Fulham realistically needs at least six points to avoid the drop. But with home games against Norwich (on Saturday), Hull and Crystal Palace still to come, those points are there for the taking. Of the bottom three, Fulham has the best chance of survival.

Cardiff, 19th, 26 pts

Matches remaining: 5

Ole Gunnar Solskjaer has had one positive impact since he was appointed January 2: he’s turned around the team’s offense, even if it’s taken almost three months. Prior to the defeat against Crystal Palace on Saturday, Cardiff had scored 10 goals in its previous four games. Unfortunately, only one of those games ended in victory for Cardiff. More troubling, the defense (second-most goals allowed, behind only woeful Fulham) has been abysmal and worse than it ever was under predecessor Malky Mackay. In 13 games under Solskjaer, Cardiff has conceded 32 goals (2.46/game), a rate that would eclipse Derby’s 38-game record from 2007-08 (2.34/game). Cardiff conceded the same amount of goals under Mackay this season, but he was in charge for 20 games, not 13. All three goals in the massive defeat to Crystal Palace – a game that could seal Cardiff’s doom – came about because of defensive errors. No one closed down Jason Puncheon for Palace’s first, and Joe Ledley was allowed to run free onto a rebound for the second. And after watching Puncheon score in the first half, Stephen Caulker turned his back to him as he approached the Cardiff goal late in the second, giving Puncheon the window he needed to rifle a curling shot into the back of the net. It’s hard to see how Cardiff is going to get at least seven points from its last five games, even if it does beat Sunderland. A -35 goal difference (only Fulham is worse) doesn’t help either.

Sunderland, 20th, 25 pts

Matches remaining: 8

Sunderland is in a strange place. One on hand, it’s bottom of the table, seven points from safety. On the other, it has eight games remaining, more than any other team and three more than the three teams it must climb above to avoid the drop. But back on that first hand, it’s very likely that Sunderland will have lost the first of those games before you read this, on Monday night against Spurs. That fixture begins a brutal 14-day stretch that also includes matches against Everton, Man City and Chelsea (three of the four are away from home). But after the Black Cats emerge from that, they have three winnable home games, against Cardiff, West Brom and Swansea (with a trip to Man U sandwiched in between). Five games against the top seven, three games against the bottom six. Sunderland has to hope that by the time of its first “easy” game against Cardiff, on April 27, that its rivals haven’t totally left it behind. Either that, or pick something up against one of the top teams.

Countdown to the Masters

With Tiger Out, What Will Happen?

By Caroline Davenport

I’m back loyal blog readers, and I apologize for the impromptu hiatus, that’s what happens when you have bronchitis and spring break back to back. But enough about me, while I was sick and hanging out with my parents, I had the opportunity to watch a lot of Doral and how it played out two weeks ago. It was frustrating to see Tiger on the prowl completely obliterate his back after one awkward bunker shot, but it was also nice to see, yet again, another up-and-comer, Patrick Reed, lead the pack and eventually take the prize, at the brand new Doral nonetheless. 

The tides are turning on the PGA Tour, and the Jason Days, Jordan Speiths and Adam Scotts are becoming household names, replacing the Tigers, Mickelsons and Watsons. Speaking of Adam Scott, let’s discuss his rather impressive slaying of Bay Hill at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, the usual stomping ground of Tiger Woods, who was 2013’s champion. Is Scott gearing up for the Masters in a couple of weeks?

The opening round of the Masters starts April 10^th, in about three weeks, and with only two more tournaments in between, the stakes are getting higher each week. Adam Scott’s performance has been perfect right out of the gate, shooting an impressive 10-under 62 the first round and as of Saturday he was at 15 under. That type of slaying is exactly the fire Scott needs to compete for a back to back Masters win.  

Some other players to keep an eye out for in the upcoming weeks are the usual young guns, such as Rickie Fowler, who has been working with his swing coach instead of tournament play this weekend, Bubba Watson, former Masters champ, who won the Northern Trust Open back in February, Jason Day, the Aussie who won the Accenture Match play championship in February as well, and then, the no name. Out of the last eleven tournaments played, eight of the winners were pros I have never heard of before such as Patrick Reed (who won twice), Russell Henley, and Scott Stallings. Could someone win the Masters that is apart of the ranks of the unknown this year? It is very possible, and all though the Masters and Augusta are known for their “traditions” I think they could use a little shake up.