The Great Escape

Your Weekly Premier League Update

By Jonathan Gault

The bottom half of the table has been a mess most of the season, getting rejiggered on a weekly basis. There’s separation at the bottom now, with Fulham, Cardiff and Sunderland all at least five points adrift of 17th-place Norwich. Normally with five weeks to go in the season, that means that we have three very clear relegation candidates. But nothing is ever that simple in the Barclays Premier League. Here’s where we stand as of Monday morning at the bottom of the table.

West Brom, 16th, 32 pts

Matches remaining: 6

I don’t think West Brom is a particularly strong side, but it’s in the best position of any team on this list when you take into account league position, points, goal difference and matches remaining. It’s coming off a crucial win at Norwich and has a game in hand on the Canaries, as well as Fulham and Cardiff. It’s got points opportunities home vs. West Ham and Stoke and away at Sunderland; a win or three draws would push the Baggies to 35 points and likely guarantee safety.

Norwich, 17th, 32 pts

The loss to West Brom on Saturday hurts, obviously, and aside from bringing Norwich closer to relegation, it also cost manager Chris Hughton his job. Interim boss Neil Adams can’t afford to dwell on that though – this Saturday’s game at Fulham may well decide the season. Norwich closes with games against Liverpool, Man U, Chelsea and Arsenal, meaning that the Fulham match could be its last chance to put points on the board. Add in the fact that Fulham is just one place behind and a win could bring it to within two points of Norwich and this is a classic “six-pointer” if ever there was one. Sunderland was in 16th place last season on March 30 when it sacked Martin O’Neill and it managed to stay up. Can Neil Adams play the role of Paolo Di Canio and do the same for Norwich?

Fulham, 18th, 27 pts

Matches remaining: 5

Saturday’s massive win at Aston Villa showed that there is a sliver of hope peeking out behind the avalanche of goals (2.24/game) the team has allowed this season. Because its goal difference is so poor, Fulham realistically needs at least six points to avoid the drop. But with home games against Norwich (on Saturday), Hull and Crystal Palace still to come, those points are there for the taking. Of the bottom three, Fulham has the best chance of survival.

Cardiff, 19th, 26 pts

Matches remaining: 5

Ole Gunnar Solskjaer has had one positive impact since he was appointed January 2: he’s turned around the team’s offense, even if it’s taken almost three months. Prior to the defeat against Crystal Palace on Saturday, Cardiff had scored 10 goals in its previous four games. Unfortunately, only one of those games ended in victory for Cardiff. More troubling, the defense (second-most goals allowed, behind only woeful Fulham) has been abysmal and worse than it ever was under predecessor Malky Mackay. In 13 games under Solskjaer, Cardiff has conceded 32 goals (2.46/game), a rate that would eclipse Derby’s 38-game record from 2007-08 (2.34/game). Cardiff conceded the same amount of goals under Mackay this season, but he was in charge for 20 games, not 13. All three goals in the massive defeat to Crystal Palace – a game that could seal Cardiff’s doom – came about because of defensive errors. No one closed down Jason Puncheon for Palace’s first, and Joe Ledley was allowed to run free onto a rebound for the second. And after watching Puncheon score in the first half, Stephen Caulker turned his back to him as he approached the Cardiff goal late in the second, giving Puncheon the window he needed to rifle a curling shot into the back of the net. It’s hard to see how Cardiff is going to get at least seven points from its last five games, even if it does beat Sunderland. A -35 goal difference (only Fulham is worse) doesn’t help either.

Sunderland, 20th, 25 pts

Matches remaining: 8

Sunderland is in a strange place. One on hand, it’s bottom of the table, seven points from safety. On the other, it has eight games remaining, more than any other team and three more than the three teams it must climb above to avoid the drop. But back on that first hand, it’s very likely that Sunderland will have lost the first of those games before you read this, on Monday night against Spurs. That fixture begins a brutal 14-day stretch that also includes matches against Everton, Man City and Chelsea (three of the four are away from home). But after the Black Cats emerge from that, they have three winnable home games, against Cardiff, West Brom and Swansea (with a trip to Man U sandwiched in between). Five games against the top seven, three games against the bottom six. Sunderland has to hope that by the time of its first “easy” game against Cardiff, on April 27, that its rivals haven’t totally left it behind. Either that, or pick something up against one of the top teams.