Getting to the Good Stuff

Your Weekly Premier League Update

By Jonathan Gault

This just might be the best Premier League season ever. The next four weeks will determine whether that is the case, but given the tightness of both the title and relegation races, there’s a compelling case to be made.

Exhibit A: Sunday’s breathless, 90-minute thrill ride that was Liverpool 3, Manchester City 2. As most Liverpool games seem to these days, it began with an early goal, and the action didn’t stop until the final whistle. If you watched all the way through, here’s what you saw: five goals; one red card; James Milner (yes, James Milner) turn around the match for City; City bring it back from 0-2 to 2-2 without Yaya Toure or Sergio Aguero; Luis Suarez avoid a red card for an obvious dive; Vincent Kompany at fault for two goals, including the match-winner; and a last-second no-call on a Martin Skrtel handball in the penalty area (that was, admittedly, difficult to locate without the benefit of replay).

Liverpool owned the first 30 minutes of the first half; City owned the first 30 minutes of the second half. Raheem Sterling made his case for a starting spot in Roy Hodgson’s World Cup team, scoring the first, setting up the second and clearing a potential City equalizer off the line. The 19-year-old’s work on the his goal – slipping unnoticed behind Kompany before taking his time and finishing at the near post – displayed a coolness that belied his youth. Milner and David Silva matched him for City in the second half, attacking from the side of the box to send dangerous balls across the face of the goal. Neither defense did itself any honors, but we expected that coming in; these are two of the greatest offenses in Premier League history. Both of these teams are deserving champions; and yet it’s possible that neither will win the title.

It begins simply enough: if Liverpool wins its remaining four matches, it will win its first Premier League title. The Reds still have to get by Chelsea on April 27, though. If Chelsea wins that one and its other three, the Blues are guaranteed to finish ahead of Liverpool. But that doesn’t guarantee them the title; if Chelsea beats Liverpool and Man City wins out, Man City will capture its second championship in three years. It’s messy, but it’s beautiful at the same time, because with three teams in the race, it’s incredibly likely that the title will still be up for grabs on the season’s final weekend.

The relegation battle isn’t likely to be settled by then either, not after Fulham and Cardiff managed to win against Norwich and Southampton, respectively, on Saturday. Five points separate 14th-place Aston Villa and 19th-place Cardiff. Only last-place Sunderland, losers of five straight, appears to be doomed at the moment. Cardiff, Norwich and Fulham remain the most likely to go down, but it’s an interesting argument about which team is in the best position. Norwich has 32 points, but little hope of increasing that total with games against Liverpool, Man U, Chelsea and Arsenal. Fulham has 30 and the worst goal difference, but home games against Hull and Crystal Palace look tempting. Cardiff has 29 but still gets to play Sunderland again, not to mention free-falling Newcastle.

I’m leaning toward Fulham because Felix Magath looks like he’s starting to figure it out, and the Cottagers’ recent struggles are, like Arsenal’s at the top, the product of a brutal schedule. In their last 10, they’ve won three, drawn two and lost five. But when you consider one of the draws was against Man U and four of the losses were against Liverpool, Chelsea, Man City and Everton, 11 points from 10 games isn’t a bad haul. I’m not convinced Norwich can score enough goals to take any points off the big boys. Cardiff may well beat Sunderland, but the one-point advantage Fulham holds over Cardiff could end up being the margin by which relegation is settled.

This is a Premier League column, but I’ll touch briefly on the FA Cup semifinals as an example of just how desperate things are at Arsenal at the moment. Wigan was unafraid of its Premier League opponent and outplayed Arsenal for the first 2/3rds of the game on Saturday. Arsenal did string together some chances in the final minutes before equalizing, and could have won it in extra time. But the fact that the Gunners needed penalties is not a good sign. Arsene Wenger’s job was already in jeopardy after Everton overtook Arsenal for the final Champions League spot. A middling performance against a lower-division side doesn’t exactly strengthen his position, even though it brought Arsenal one step closer to its first trophy since 2005. Another strike against him: the Gunners haven’t finished higher than third in league in that span. With Wenger’s contract set to expire, it’s possible that, no matter the outcome of the cup final on May 17, he could be out the door.

I suspect Arsenal will keep Wenger, however, for a couple of reasons. First: the speedy, attacking team that set the league on fire in the fall was derailed by injuries to Theo Walcott and Aaron Ramsey. Wenger can shoulder some blame for not having adequate reserves in place, but only some. Second: though Arsenal hasn’t finished higher than third since 2005, it also hasn’t finished lower than fourth in Wenger’s 17 seasons. That’s a staggering level of consistency, and it should be enough to earn Wenger a reprieve even if Arsenal misses the Champions League. There’s a case to be made for dismissal, especially if Arsenal falls to Hull in the cup final. But as Manchester United has seen, it can be difficult to replace an iconic manager. Arsenal should only take that step if it absolutely has to.