The Juggernaut

Your Weekly Installment of the Premier League

By Jonathan Gault

Note: This was written before Monday’s Man City-Chelsea game

Photo from the Guardian

If you follow the Premier League even in passing, you’re probably familiar with what Manchester City has done this season. Through 23 games, the Blues have scored 68 times. That’s a rate of 2.96 goals per game, which, extrapolated out over the rest of the season, would result in 112 goals – obliterating Chelsea’s Premier League record of 103 from 2009-10. And yet City might not win the title this season; in fact, it might not even finish second.

It seems odd – score three goals in any match and you’re a near-certainty for victory. Score three goals every match and you should run away with the title. But that’s not always the case. Since the Premier League went to a 38-game schedule in 1995-96, 11 teams have scored 80 or more goals in a season, seven of which won the title. But of those seven champions, four won the title by two points or fewer. Scoring a lot helps you win games, but even if you win 100-0, the most you can get out of it is three points and another game next Saturday. Put simply, City is in for a title fight.

What the Blues have done this season demands recognition.  I’d say that it’s out of a video game, but I can’t ever remember scoring six goals against Arsenal on FIFA. Man City averages more goals per game against the top half of the table (3.27) than it does against the bottom (2.67). It averages even more than that against the top eight teams (3.67). The Blues average 3.82 goals per game at home – which, if it stands up, would eclipse the single season record of 68 set by that same 2009-10 Chelsea squad. Thirteen different City players have scored in the Premier League this season.

And they’re not just threatening Premier League records. Chelsea’s all-time top flight goal difference record of +71 is also under attack (Man City is on pace for +69). It’s wishful thinking to suggest that Aston Villa’s all-time top-flight record of 128 goals from 1930-31 is in danger. But if City averaged exactly four goals per game from here on out, it would tie the record. That’s a stretch, but if they’re close at the end of the season, the Blues could make a real run at it. City closes with West Brom (H), Crystal Palace (A), Everton (A) and West Ham (H). A motivated Man City team could conceivably score 12 goals between those two home games alone.

So how do they do it? It all starts with Yaya Toure, quite possibly the best central midfielder alive at the moment. Toure has great vision and often springs City’s speedy forwards with a perfect pass from midfield. Defenders can’t sit back in those passing lanes because he’s always a threat to dribble and is almost impossible to outmuscle in possession. He’s also deadly near the box and from free kicks, and is fourth in the Premier League in goals scored.

The scariest thing about City is that you get the sense they wouldn’t miss Toure all that much in attack. That’s not to say he isn’t valuable – because of his value in defense, the start of City’s possessions in the back/middle third wouldn’t be as sharp. But once the Blues come into possession, Toure is but one of many tools they can use to generate an attack.

Fernandinho is essentially a faster version of Toure. David Silva and Samir Nasri would be the best attacking players on 12 Premier League teams. Alvaro Negredo is like a center forward out of a lab – speed, power, strength and size. Jesus Navas and Pablo Zabaleta are constant sources of deliveries from the wings. And Sergio Aguero may be better than all of them. No one in the Premier League has been deadlier around the box this season, save for Luis Suarez (and perhaps, you could argue, Daniel Sturridge). Aguero can take the ball anywhere near the goal and create a scoring opportunity within two touches.

Defending Man City is tough, and it’s nearly impossible at the Etihad Stadium, where the Blues feel comfortable pressing forward from the opening whistle. They’re not invincible away from home, and though they are capable of the occasional outburst (see Tottenham 1 Manchester City 5 from Wednesday) teams have had success by taking it to City early and testing an uneven defensive unit. Like any great attacking team, limiting possession is the first place to start against City. But teams also need to have disciplined defenders that can win their share of one-on-one battles; Man City has too many quality attacking players to commit extra defenders to any one player.

Chelsea possesses such a defense, and that’s what makes them such an appealing matchup for City. Chelsea have surrendered just 20 goals this season, fewest in the league; just like that other football game on Sunday, Monday’s City-Chelsea game is a classic battle of offense vs. defense. The title race could well come down to those two teams, and after their matchup on Monday, they’ll be back at the Etihad on Feb. 15 for an FA Cup fifth-round tie. Who you favor for the title comes down to whether you believe it’s more important to score goals than prevent them (or whether you’re an Arsenal fan).