You Can't Predict Football

Your Weekly Installment of the Premier League

By Jonathan Gault

Sometimes I wonder why I do it. All right, I know why I write about sports – because they excite me, because I appreciate greatness, because I could, at any moment, in any game, see something I’ve never seen before. But I wonder why I write articles like this one 

(http://www.epsportsmag.com/2014/02/the-juggernaut.html) heaping praise upon a team like Manchester City that is (still) on pace to break the Premier League’s scoring record. Because as soon as I do, City goes three hours (and counting) without a single goal.

It is true to say that I didn’t see it coming. But I’ve followed sports for most of my 23 years, and they have taught me that nothing is certain, especially in the Barclays Premier League. This weekend proved it. If you weren’t watching (and even if you were), here’s how, in 29 drama-filled hours.

The top of the table, as of Saturday morning:

		Played	Goal Difference	Points
1.	Arsenal	24	+26	55
2.	Manchester City	24	+41	53
3.	Chelsea	24	+24	53
4.	Liverpool	24	+29	47
5.	Everton	24	+12	45
6.	Tottenham Hotspur	24	-1	44
7.	Manchester United	24	+10	40
8.	Newcastle United	24	+1	37

Six of these teams – Liverpool and Arsenal, Chelsea and Newcastle, Tottenham and Everton – would play each other over the weekend. Between the league and the FA Cup, there will be four more top-eight clashes this week.

12:46 p.m. Saturday, Greenwich Mean Time: Just one minute into the weekend’s games, and Liverpool’s Martin Skrtel already has the first goal. The Reds lead Arsenal, 1-0, at Anfield.

12:55: Skrtel, the hulking, tattooed central defender, heads in a corner to make it 2-0. Liverpool’s Luis Suarez leads the Premier League with 23 goals this season. Teammate Daniel Sturridge is tied for second with 15. But of course it’s Skrtel who has two goals in 10 minutes.

1:05: Raheem Sterling and Sturridge add goals for Liverpool. It’s 4-0. After 20 minutes. They’re on pace to win 18-0. Arsenal entered having allowed just 21 goals in 24 games – second-best in the league. There is an explanation here, though. As good as the Gunners are, they’ve struggled against the very best offenses. They allowed six goals against Man City on Dec. 14 and will let in five in this one. Forty-two percent of their goals allowed have come in two games. Thirty percent have come in two halves.

2:34: The game, mercifully, comes to an end. Arsenal leaves with no points and severely bruised egos. And it has to play Liverpool again in the FA Cup eight days from now.

3:34: Eden Hazard plays a pass to Samuel Eto’o in the Newcastle penalty area. Hazard accelerates rapidly, shaking off his marker like a professor flicks chalk dust from his jacket. Eto’o delivers a first-touch backheel straight into Hazard’s path, and the Belgian uses one perfect touch to send the ball flying into the far corner of the goal. It’s his second of the game, and Chelsea lead Newcastle 2-0 at Stamford Bridge. One hundred and twenty-four miles northeast, Man City and Norwich are scoreless at Carrow Road.

4:13: Hazard converts a penalty for his hat trick, sending Chelsea on the way to a 3-0 win. Still no goals in Norwich.

4:49: Full time at Carrow Road: Norwich 0 Man City 0. West Ham, Crystal Palace and Stoke – three teams that entered the day with five fewer goals COMBINED than City – score a total of seven goals.

7:48: Swansea beat Cardiff 3-0 to win the South Wales derby, the first game for interim manager Garry Monk. Despite playing 56 times in the league, neither team has beaten the other twice in one season. Statistically, this doesn’t make sense. Of course it doesn’t: it’s football.

3:19 p.m., Sunday: Tottenham beat Everton 1-0 thanks to a goal from a man (Emmanuel Adebayor) who played in exactly one half of one Premier League game this year before Dec. 22. He’s started all nine since and scored six goals. Meanwhile Everton, with Romelu Lukaku sidelined with an ankle injury and Nikica Jelavic sold to Hull, struggle without a defined striker and fail to score.

4:19: At Old Trafford, Manchester United’s Darren Fletcher loses Fulham’s Steve Sidwell in the United penalty area, allowing the Fulham captain to run in, completely unmarked, and put the league’s bottom club up 1-0 at the home of the champions.

5:30: After 78 minutes of desperate blocks, tackles and clearances, the Fulham defense finally breaks, as Robin van Persie equalizes. At least Fulham has a good chance at a draw.

5:32: Michael Carrick – who was outstanding for United in this game – has his shot deflected and Fulham goalkeeper Maarten Stekelenberg can do nothing but watch as it falls into the far corner of the net. 2-1, United. Fulham has relied solely on counter-attacks to generate chances in this game. Now that Man U no longer needs to press forward for a winner, the Cottagers are surely doomed.

5:42: The fourth official announces five minutes of stoppage time. When was the last time that happened at Old Trafford with United ahead?

5:45: Three minutes into stoppage time, Darren Bent heads in the rebound from Kieran Richardson’s shot. Fulham has equalized in the time that Manchester United used to own under Sir Alex Ferguson.

5:47: Man U 2 Fulham 2, full time. United had 75 percent possession, 31 shots to Fulham’s 6 and 10 times as many corners. But it will get one point in the standings, same as Fulham.

The new table, as of Sunday night:

		Played	Goal Difference	Points
1.	Chelsea	25	+27	56
2.	Arsenal	25	+22	55
3.	Manchester City	25	+41	54
4.	Liverpool	25	+33	50
5.	Tottenham Hotspur	25	0	47
6.	Everton	25	+11	45
7.	Manchester United	25	+10	41
8.	Newcastle United	25	-2	37

That was an amazing weekend of football. I’m not going to try and comment further – with 10 Premier League games on tap for Tuesday and Wednesday, anything I say will probably be nullified by those results. There are 13 more games until the standings become set in stone. Until then, you can’t predict football.