Verlander Deserves MVP

The best player in the American League only takes the field every five days. No one can change the game more than Detroit ace, Justin Verlander. By Mike Izzo

OK, let's get this out of the way, I believe in Justin Verlander. 

My AL Cy Young Top 10:
1. Justin Verlander (DET)
2. James Shields (TB)
3. C.C. Sabathia (NYY)
4. Jered Weaver (LAA)
5. C.J. Wilson (TEX)
6. Ricky Romero (TOR)
7. Mariano Rivera (NYY)
8. Felix Hernandez (SEA)
9. David Price (TB)
10. Justin Masterson (CLE)

My AL MVP Top 10: 1. Justin Verlander (DET, SP) 2. Curtis Granderson (NYY, OF) 3. Miguel Cabrera (DET, 1B/3B) 4. Adrian Gonzalez (BOS, 1B) 5. Jacoby Ellsbury (BOS, OF) 6. Jose Bautista (TOR, OF) 7. Dustin Pedroia (BOS, 2B) 8. Robinson Cano (NYY, 2B) 9. David Ortiz (BOS, DH) 10. TIE, C.C. Sabathia (NYY, SP) and C.J. Wilson (TEX, SP)

Future AL MVP, Justin Verlander

That’s right, Verlander is my American League Most Valuable Player. He may officially be the MVP in about a month, so its time to get used to the idea. I’m not thrilled about it either, but after countless hours of debating, I see no way around it. A pitcher, someone who plays just once out of every five games, is more responsible for his team’s success than the dozens of players that take the field on a daily basis. 

            Now, to be fair, the main reason he's my pick for the MVP is because it's clearly a down year for this particular accolade. If giving out the award were optional, I would say to hold off (Perhaps treat it like a skins match in golf and next year’s award can count double. But I digress…). The AL lacks a single most valuable player. 

            Verlander’s biggest competition in this vote comes from Curtis Granderson, who is having a career year and has contributed a great deal to the Yankees success. With a week left to go he has over 40 home runs, nearly 120 RBI’s, 24 stolen bases, and a staggering 133 runs scored, a number no other player is even close to. The big knock on him? The batting average. Can you vote in all good conscience for a player batting .270 (maybe lower by the end of the season)? It shows his hits are productive and he makes things happen when he gets on base (and a .374 OBP is nothing to scoff at), but still, that’s a pretty low average. Plus, with the cushion of hitting in front of Mark Teixeira, Robinson Cano, and Alex Rodriguez, I could flirt with the Mendoza line, so how impressive is it really? And how much would those stats drop if he didn’t play in the lefty-friendly Yankee Stadium?

            Many will make the argument for a number of Boston Red Sox, but that’s the issue: So many Red Sox are hitting well that they help boost each other’s stats. Would Adrian Gonzalez be batting .340 if pitchers weren’t forced to throw strikes to him every night? Would Jacoby Ellsbury score so many runs if Gonzalez weren’t at bat to drive him in? How about Dustin Pedroia? Would "Big Papi" David Ortiz be slugging so well? The answer is obvious: This is the most potent lineup in baseball, but how can one pick any of them for MVP when they can't tell for sure if they’re even the MVP of their own team?

            Of course the player nobody seems to be talking about is the one that finished second in MVP voting last year, Miguel Cabrera. With an astounding .439 OBP to go along with his .331 batting average, 26 home runs and nearly 100 RBI’s, it’s not like Verlander has to win this thing alone, which is what many Verlander advocates seem to claim. The team has four players flirting at or above .300. I’m not saying he’s the most valuable player, but he deserves to be in the conversation.

Then there’s Jose Bautista, arguably more valuable to his team than any of these other hitters. This is the one guy on the Toronto Blue Jays that people are afraid of. Sure, they have other good hitters (Brett Lawrie, rookie of the year next season -- write it down), but he's the only guy on the team that pitchers fear. He always sees their best stuff, and he still knocks it out of the park. But they aren’t in playoff contention, so he isn’t getting much love in the MVP debates. 

Curtis Granderson

            And so we’re left with Verlander by default. Let’s break it down. His 24 wins (with a week left to play) are the most since Randy Johnson hit that number in 2002, a full decade ago. Now we all know that wins are a terrible stat, but still, 24 wins mean something. His 244 strikeouts are a full 14 ahead of the next closest pitcher in the AL, C.C. Sabathia, and he has a league leading among starters 2.29 ERA. The workhorse has also pitched the most innings in the league, 244 (A perfect K/9 of 9.00, the nerdy side me loves this). That’s the Pitching Triple Crown, and a lock for the Cy Young Award, obviously. But I’m here to sell you on the MVP.

           

-- In 24 of Verlander’s 37 starts, he has given up three runs or less over at least seven innings per outing. 

-- He pitched a no-hitter in May (he walked one, faced the minimum of 27 batters).

-- There was a month-long period this season where he pitched seven consecutive starts giving up a run or less.

-- Verlander leads the majors among pitchers in wins over replacement player (WARP) with 8.0.

-- He's third overall (including hitters) in WARP (7.9) behind only Matt Kemp (8.7) and Jose Bautista (8.2).

--  He leads the aforementioned Triple Crown.

-- While Doug Fister has been a huge asset to the Tigers’ rotation, Max Scherzer, Brad Penny, and Rick Porcello have not, meaning that by the time the ball got back in Verlander’s hand it was up to him to prevent a losing streak, which he has done more than anyone this season.

Where would the Tigers be without Verlander? Your guess is as good as mine. But I wouldn’t be shocked to see them in the basement of the division. The same cannot be said for any other MVP candidate (aside from Bautista who isn’t valuable enough to get the Jays into the playoff hunt). And that is why he is the American League MVP. Like it or not, Verlander deserves to sweep the AL awards this fall.