Are the Hawks Contenders Without Center Al Horford?

by Matt Rose

Atlanta Hawks Joe Johnson/nydailynews.com

Not even Rex Ryan would have predicted that the Hawks would be 15-6 and in third place in the Eastern Conference without star center Al Horford. As unfathomable as it is, it is true. The Hawks have gone 8-2 following Horford’s pectoral tear, which is expected to cost him three or four months of the season. Can the Hawks possibly continue this impressive start with Zaza Pachulia, Jason Collins, and Ivan Johnson filling in for Horford? If Joe Johnson and Jeff Teague play well, the answer is yes. While Johnson and Teague are guards, their positive play will take pressure off the Hawks center-by-committee.

There is a clear disparity in Johnson and Teague’s performances in wins versus losses. It is normal to see a three or four point dip in scoring average in losses compared to wins, but Johnson and Teague have alarming gaps that illustrate their importance to the team.

Johnson is averaging 18.6 PPG this year. In wins, he averages 20.9 PPG, but in losses he averages a startling 13.0 PPG and takes three less shots per game. The Hawks have depth at shooting guard, with Tracy McGrady and Willie Green available off the bench, but Johnson must score for the Hawks to win. In addition, the Hawks really have no offensive threat in the post. Forward Josh Smith is averaging 15.8 PPG, but he rarely backs defenders down or scores from the low post. Pachulia, I. Johnson, and Collins combine for a measly 12.8 PPG. Thus, Joe Johnson must be the focal point of the offense every game and work to get shots. If he does not score both efficiently and often, the Hawks will not continue to win without Horford.

On the other hand, Jeff Teague is having the break out season the Hawks needed him to have. After years of disappointing point guard play from Hawks’ point guards, Teague’s performance this season has given hope that he may be a long term solution. Through twenty-one games, Teague is averaging 13.0 PPG, 5.2 APG, and 2.0 STPG, all career highs. In losses, however, Teague averages just 9.3 PPG, 4.2 APG, and 2.7 STPG—shooting only 36.7% from the field. Teague must be an efficient third option on offense and avoid the terrible games he is prone to have every so often.

Ultimately, the Hawks are in a difficult situation without their Third Team All-NBA Center. If Johnson and Teague can avoid the down games that have cost the Hawks wins, they can fight for a top four seed in the East; however, if they are hit with another injury or are plagued by more inconsistency out of Johnson and Teague, the wins will be few and far between.