March Madness: Region by Region Breakdown

By Matt Rose

Selection Sunday has finally come and gone, and millions tormenting themselves, frantically filling out bracket after bracket in hopes of creating the perfect one. For those of you who are waiting until the Thursday deadline, or completely unsatisfied with your picks in this year’s wide-open tournament, help has arrived. Here is a regional breakdown, including the favorite, Cinderella, team on upset alert, and the team to come out of the region.

Midwest:

The NCAA Tournament Committee completely abandoned the “S” curve, which paired the top overall seed with the lowest two seed, highest three seed, and lowest four seed. The Midwest has eight teams in the AP Top 25, including four ranked thirteen or better: Louisville (2), Duke (6), Michigan St. (9), St. Louis (13).  Therefore, the region is unpredictable, despite hosting the top overall seed.

AP Photo/Michael Perez

·      Favorite: Louisville (1) The Cardinals 

     enter the NCAA Tournament fresh off an impressive Big East Championship win over Syracuse, in which they scored fifty-six points in the second half. They likely will not face a tough test until the Sweet Sixteen, where they will meet Oregon, Oklahoma St., St. Louis, or New Mexico St., all of whom they should be able to handle. 

·      Cinderella: Creighton (7) As the Tournament reminds us every year, one player can lead a team into the late rounds (remember Steph Curry?). Creighton forward Doug McDermott is arguably the National Player of the Year, averaging 23.6 PPG and 7.5 REB. If McDermott catches fire, they can knock off Duke and make a push.

·      Upset Alert: Oklahoma St. (5) vs. Oregon (12) This is almost unfair to call an upset, as Oregon is fresh off a PAC 12 Championship victory and ranked twenty-fifth in the country. Look for the Ducks to build off their momentum and take down an inconsistent Oklahoma St. team.

·      Final Four Team: Duke (2) The Blue Devil’s loss to Maryland in the ACC Quarterfinal was their first loss with Ryan Kelly in the lineup all year. With a balanced inside outside scoring attack, Duke is arguably the most complete team in the tournament.

West:

The West house’s Gonzaga, the number one team in the AP Top 25, and everybody’s pick as the first one seed to fall. With teams in the AP Top 25 from the one through eighth seeds, who will come out of the region?

·      Favorite: Ohio State (2) After a rough patch during the latter half of the season, the Buckeyes have rattled off eight straight victories en route to a Big Ten Tournament Championship. During that span, they knocked off Minnesota, Illinois, Michigan State (twice), Indiana, and Wisconsin. There is no hotter team in basketball right now.

·      Cinderella: Ole Miss (12) Everybody loves the 12-5 upset, and Ole Miss has the potential to knock off Wisconsin if Marshall Henderson gets loose. Fresh off a SEC Championship win over Florida, Ole Miss can score in bunches, and if Wisconsin’s defense yields, or its slow paced offense does not convert, Ole Miss can steal one, and maybe go further if their play remains energized.

·      Upset Alert: Gonzaga (1) vs. Wichita St./ Pittsburgh (8/9) The Bulldogs efficient and explosive offense is untested against quality opponents. With a record of 1-2 against the AP Top 25, Pitt/ Wichita St. are capable of taking out the Zags. If you like picking upsets, this is the region to do it, as Iowa St. (10), Belmont (11), Ole Miss (12) Boise St./ La Salle (13) and Harvard (14) are all capable of defeating their first round opponents.

·      Final Four Team: Ohio State (2) They are the favorite for a reason, as they are tested and experienced. Juniors Deshaun Thomas and Aaron Craft are Tournament veterans, poised to make another deep run.

South:

The South is an interesting region to predict. As good as Kansas (1), Georgetown (2), Florida (3), and Michigan (4) have looked throughout the season, they have looked equally terrible at times. The region features four of the most talented, yet inconsistent teams in the country.

·      Favorite: Kansas (1) The Jayhawks will not face much opposition until the Sweet Sixteen, where they will face either Michigan or VCU, assuming they are not upset. At their best, they can beat anybody, and assuming they are playing at their peak level, the Jayhawks can run through the inconsistent South.

·      Cinderella: VCU (5) Shaka Smart is one of the best coaches in all of basketball, and consistently leads the Rams into the late rounds of the Tournament. Defensively, the Rams have six players who average .8 SPG, or greater. If the Rams can force turnovers, as they do so well, they can run the South.

·      Upset Alert: UCLA (6) vs. Minnesota (11) Minnesota has faltered following a 15-1 start, finishing the season 5-11, but their roster is flowing with NBA size and athleticism. Further, UCLA is young and inexperienced, and will be without their second leading scorer Jordan Adams, who broke his foot in the PAC 12 Tournament. Minnesota Coach Tubby Smith must achieve some results in this year’s Tournament if he wants to keep his job, so look for the Golden Gophers to pounce on UCLA early.

·      Final Four Team: Florida (3) The Gators have looked like the best team in college basketball at times this year. Despite an SEC Tournament Championship loss to Ole Miss, the Gators have veteran size inside with Erik Murphy and Patric Young. Senior guards Mike Rosario and Kenny Boynton are quick and steady ball handlers. The Gators experienced inside-outside attack will lead to Tournament success in the South.

East:

Fan favorites Indiana (1) and Miami (2) are generating lots of Championship buzz, and soon to be former Big East powers Marquette (3) and Syracuse (4) are enigmatic, at best. In the East, choosing the favorites may be best.

·      Favorite: Indiana (1) The Hoosiers have been the best team in basketball for much of the season. The trio of Cody Zeller, Victor Oladipo, and Christian Wafford has been phenomenal all season, averaging a combined 43 PPG, 20.8 REB, while shooting an astounding 54% from the field. Without a glaring weakness, the Hoosiers are a tough out.

·      Cinderella: Davidson (14) First off, Butler can make a long run again this year, but they have lost the right to be labeled a “Cinderella” anymore. Davidson, meanwhile, is 26-7 and scores frequently and efficiently. Marquette is only as good as Vander Blue plays. If Davidson can defeat Marquette, they could take down fellow Mid-Major Butler and find themselves in the Sweet Sixteen.

·      Upset Alert: Syracuse (4) Anybody who has watched this team knows the Orange can beat anybody in the Nation, but are always a candidate to explode behind turnover-prone guard Michael Cater-Williams. If Carter-Williams shows his youth and shooters James Southerland, Brandon Triche, and Trevor Cooney go cold, the Orange could be bounced early.

·      Final Four Team: Indiana (1) Simply, the Hoosiers are the most well rounded team, and Tom Creen is an ideal coach to lead this team all the way.

Final Four: Midwest: Duke; West: Ohio State; South: Florida; East: Indiana

Championship: Duke 72, Indiana 68