AFC South: Watt shines, Luck loses out, Arians prevails

JJ Watt, Andrew Luck, and Bruce Arians were all involved in the NFL awards season, but for different reasons

By Jeremy Philipson

Watt wins DPOY: Many expected the AP Defensive Player of the Year voting to be suspenseful, but not for the reason you may think. Everyone was waiting not to see who won, but how he won.

(Kirby Lee/US Presswire)

JJ Watt took home DPOY honors in his second NFL season almost unanimously, raking in 49 of the 50 votes. Watt recorded one of the most dominant seasons by a defensive end in recent memory, and was rewarded with the highest honor a defensive player can receive.

Other players who had big years, like Bears’ defensive back Charles “Peanut” Tillman and 49ers defensive end Aldon Smith, were shut out of the vote completely, with the other vote going to Von Miller, the second-year defensive end for the Broncos.

Here are some numbers to quantify just how good Watt was this season*:

·      He led NFL with 20.5 sacks (tied for the sixth-most all-time).

·      He became one of nine players to register at least 20 sacks since sacks began to be recorded in 1982.

·      He batted or tipped 16 passes this season, most in the NFL

·      He disrupted 5.7 percent of the drop-backs he faced. In the past three seasons, no other player posted a number higher than 4.3 percent (Jared Allen in 2011).

Watt has said he has even higher goals for next year, and it will be fun to see how defenses adjust to compensate for his talent.

Defensive coordinator Wade Phillips, who has coached greats like Reggie White and Bruce Smith, recently said that Watt “had the absolute best year any defensive lineman has ever had.”

Pretty high praise for a kid from Wisconsin.

*All stats from ESPN Stats and Information

Luck not so lucky: Most years, breaking the rookie passing record and turning a 2-14 team into an 11-5 wild card team would be enough to win the Rookie of the Year award.

Unlike most years, this year featured three of the best rookie quarterbacks of all time. And unfortunately for Andrew Luck, he was on the wrong side of the vote. Luck tallied just 11 votes, compared to 29 for RGIII, who took the league, and ultimately the trophy, by storm.

Throwing for the seventh most yards in the NFL, more than former Super Bowl and NFL MVP Aaron Rodgers and two-time Super Bowl champion Eli Manning? Not enough. Breaking the rookie records for most yards in a single game, 300-yard passing games, game-winning drives, and fourth quarter comebacks? Maybe next time.

Luck has been bested by Griffin III previously, with the first time coming in 2011, when both players were Heisman finalists. That ended with the Baylor QB hoisting the trophy, and Luck finishing as runner-up for the second year in a row.

NFL fans can only hope these two players continue to battle for NFL awards over the next decade. And next time, maybe RGIII will be the runner-up.

Arians wins as Interim HC: How many times has an interim head coach won the AP Coach of the Year award? Before last week, the answer would be zero. 

After leading an emotional Colts team to a 9-3 record while head coach Chuck Pagano battled leukemia, Bruce Arians became the first interim head coach to win the award, and the first coach from Indianapolis to win since the team moved from Baltimore in 1984.

Arians took over in October and led the team through December, compiling a record of 9-3. Pagano is officially credited with all wins and losses, so Arians wins the award with a record of 0-0. Not only is this an awkward situation, but it is one that is likely to never happen again. When interim coaches take over teams, it usually means the head coach is fired. Head coaches usually get fired on poor teams, and coaches of the year do not come from poor teams.

Arians benefited from a strong organization and one of the best rookie quarterbacks ever. When he takes over as the head man in Arizona next season, his task will be much tougher. With no quarterback of the future in place, Arians will have an opportunity to prove that this year was no fluke.

New Look Coaching Staff in Jacksonville

By Jeremy Philipson

The Jags, clearly out to distance themselves from a dismal 2-14 campaign, cleaned house this offseason, hiring a new general manager, head coach, offensive coordinator, and defensive coordinator. Who are the new faces in North Florida? Let’s find out.

(Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports)

General Manager: David Caldwell, a native of Buffalo, NY, takes the helm as the GM after working his way up the league food chain for the past 17 years. Caldwell started as a scouting assistant for the Panthers under then-GM Bill Polian, moved to a regional scout for the Colts (also under Polian), then to the Falcons director of college scouting, and finally as the Falcons director of player personnel and the right hand man of current GM Thomas Dimitroff. 

Caldwell brings sound experience in scouting and player personnel, two areas the Jaguars clearly need to upgrade. With many holes on the roster and $22 million in cap space to play around with in free agency, Caldwell has his work cut out for him. Many of the players hitting free agency are expendable, which gives Caldwell the opportunity to focus on signing new players and improving his team through the draft. NFL teams are not built overnight, and with a team with as many holes as the Jaguars, fans need to be patient. It may be 3-4 years before Jacksonville can realistically contend in the AFC South, but steady improvement over those years will signal a turning of the tides.

Head Coach: With teams more focused on offense and scoring, the Jaguars are looking at the other side of the ball and have hired defensive guru Gus Bradley as their next head coach. Bradley has spent the past four years as the defensive coordinator for the Seattle Seahawks, and in the process, transformed a below-average defense into one of the best in the league. The Seahawks ranked in the bottom quarter of the league in total yards and points per game in Bradley’s first two seasons, but turned the corner in his final two years, and ranked in the top third in both categories. In two years, Bradley took a defense giving up over 25 points per game to a defense giving up 15.3 points per game, the best mark in the league. Now, he inherits a team that was 30^th in total defense in 2012. If Bradley can turn around the Jacksonville defense the way he did Seattle, he will be thought of as one of the games brightest defensive minds.

Offensive Coordinator: Many new coaches hire past colleagues to work on their staff, just as Doug Marrone did when he hired Nathaniel Hackett to run the offense in Buffalo. Gus Bradley is no different, and hired Jedd Fisch as his offensive coordinator. Fisch spent the past two years as the OC for Miami Hurricanes, and ranked 33^rd in total offense in his first year. The two worked together in 2010 with Seattle, when Bradley was defensive coordinator and Fisch the quarterbacks coach.

 Although only 36, Fisch has plenty of experience in the NFL, serving as a coach for four different teams on both sides of the ball. Bradley hopes Fisch can bring his quarterback magic to Jacksonville, where the team hopes Blaine Gabbert can make significant strides in his third season and entrench himself as the quarterback of the future. With weapons like Justin Blackmon, Cecil Shorts, Laurent Robinson, and Maurice Jones-Drew, Fisch can be very creative with his offense and give Gabbert the best chance to succeed.

Defensive Coordinator: Bradley once again went with familiarity, hiring Bob Babich as his defensive coordinator. When Babich was head coach at North Dakota State from 1997-2002, Bradley served as a defensive assistant. Now, the roles are reversed. After serving under Lovie Smith for the past nine seasons in Chicago, Babich is ready for a change. 

With the Bears, he gained experience as linebackers coach, assistant head coach, and defensive coordinator, positions he held at different times during his time in Chicago. Babich brings 29 years of coaching experience to Jacksonville, with 10 in the NFL and six as a college head coach. 

As mentioned previously, the Jaguars defense was a mess last season, and Babich will need all the help he can get to turn it around. Look for new GM David Caldwell to spend some money and high draft picks on the defensive side of the ball. As offensive numbers skyrocket at historic rates, it will only be a matter of time before the defense catches up. Babich, along with Bradley and Caldwell, hope Jacksonville will be the first.

AFC South: With Luck, Colts Future is Bright for Years to Come

With the Colts season officially over, lets take a look back at an incredible year.

If you told Colts fans last year that their team would be 11-5 and make the playoffs this year, most would have laughed in your face. If you added that their head coach would miss a majority of the season, they would call you crazy.

(AP Photo/Darron Cummings)

When Indianapolis drafted Andrew Luck with the first overall pick, it signaled a new direction for the franchise. It was the end of the Manning Era, and the beginning of the Luck Era.

I was talking to one of my friends, Bob Wolfley, who is a lifelong Colts fan, and asked him what he thought this season would bring.

“Honestly, I am an optimistic person. Immediately after the draft, I predicted the Colts would go 8-8 this season. I didn't even think we had a chance at the playoffs.”

An 8-8 season would have made most Colts fans ecstatic. But 11-5 with the No. 5 seed in the playoffs? With a rookie quarterback and a patchwork offensive line? Better than most people could have imagined.

Bob went on to talk about how good he thinks Luck can be. “I don’t think any of the other rookie quarterbacks are as mentally tough as he (Luck) is. He did so much with so little this year. I believe he can be a top five quarterback in the next two years.” Luck had to take over a team that had gone 2-14 the previous year, with gaping holes on the offensive side of the ball, and won nine more games.

Alas, the season is over for Indianapolis. Now it is time to look forward to April’s draft. In his first mock draft, ESPN’s Todd McShay has Indianapolis taking Ezekiel Ansah, a DE from BYU. McShay cites a new 3-4 scheme as a main reason for taking Ansah, who has taken “huge strides in 2012.”

If it were up to Bob Wolfley, the Colts would address their offensive line. If Luck has a solid line and has time to sit in the pocket, “he is going to crumble defenses.”

No matter whom the Colts draft in April, this season was an immense success. With solid player development and sound front office decisions, Indianapolis will be a playoff mainstay for years to come.

When I asked Bob for any last thoughts on the season, he replied with one simple hashtag:

#ColtsStrong

AFC South Playoff Predictor

With the regular season over, it’s time to take a look at what lies ahead for the two AFC South playoff teams

(AP Photo/Michael Conroy)

By Jeremy Philipson

After a wild final three weeks, which saw Houston drop from the #1 seed in the AFC to barely winning their division, it is (finally) time for the playoffs.

The Texans, the No. 3 seed in the AFC, come into the playoffs losers of three of their last four, a far cry from their 11-1 start. After getting embarrassed by the Patriots on Monday Night Football in Week 14, they won at home vs. Indianapolis, a win that guaranteed a division crown. But, Houston has lost in the last two weeks, both to playoff teams, including this past week to an emotional Colts team at home.

A win over the Colts would have secured home-field advantage throughout the playoffs for Houston, which should have been motivation enough. Now, with the road going through Denver and New England, the Texans might have to play outdoors in cold weather stadiums, in January, in consecutive weeks.

All this could have been avoided with a win in 2 of their final 4 games, but Houston came up short. With a game against a frisky Bengals team set for Saturday, the Texans need to get back to their early season success, or suffer a short playoff life.

Prediction: Texans 24, Bengals 20

Indianapolis rolls into the “second season” with a 5-1 record in their last 6 games, and 9-2 in their last 11. Aided by the return of their head coach Chuck Pagano, who missed almost the entire season while battling leukemia, the Colts look as dangerous as any wild card team, even with a rookie quarterback.

The Colts have a date with the Baltimore Ravens as the early game on Sunday, and even though the game is in Baltimore, the Colts could have the advantage. The Ravens have lost 4 of 5 and are 1-2 in their final 3 home games, including losses to rival Pittsburgh and AFC #1 seed Denver. With a red-hot colts team coming to town, Baltimore will need to be on their A-game to end Sunday with a “W.”

Prediction: Colts 17, Ravens 14

What Andrew Luck has done this year has been nothing short of remarkable. NFL fans have been spoiled in 2012 with record-breaking seasons (Calvin Johnson), incredible comeback stories (Adrian Peterson and Peyton Manning), and amazing rookie performances, including an unheard-of 3 rookie quarterbacks leading their teams to the playoffs (Andrew Luck, Robert Griffin III, and Russell Wilson), but what Luck has done is truly unbelievable. Taking a 2-14 team to 11-5, playing all but 4 games without his head coach, and becoming the leader of a group full of veterans shows why everyone was on the Luck bandwagon last year. Even if the Colts don’t win another game, this season has been everything Colts fans could have expected, and more.