AFC South Playoff Predictor

With the regular season over, it’s time to take a look at what lies ahead for the two AFC South playoff teams

(AP Photo/Michael Conroy)

By Jeremy Philipson

After a wild final three weeks, which saw Houston drop from the #1 seed in the AFC to barely winning their division, it is (finally) time for the playoffs.

The Texans, the No. 3 seed in the AFC, come into the playoffs losers of three of their last four, a far cry from their 11-1 start. After getting embarrassed by the Patriots on Monday Night Football in Week 14, they won at home vs. Indianapolis, a win that guaranteed a division crown. But, Houston has lost in the last two weeks, both to playoff teams, including this past week to an emotional Colts team at home.

A win over the Colts would have secured home-field advantage throughout the playoffs for Houston, which should have been motivation enough. Now, with the road going through Denver and New England, the Texans might have to play outdoors in cold weather stadiums, in January, in consecutive weeks.

All this could have been avoided with a win in 2 of their final 4 games, but Houston came up short. With a game against a frisky Bengals team set for Saturday, the Texans need to get back to their early season success, or suffer a short playoff life.

Prediction: Texans 24, Bengals 20

Indianapolis rolls into the “second season” with a 5-1 record in their last 6 games, and 9-2 in their last 11. Aided by the return of their head coach Chuck Pagano, who missed almost the entire season while battling leukemia, the Colts look as dangerous as any wild card team, even with a rookie quarterback.

The Colts have a date with the Baltimore Ravens as the early game on Sunday, and even though the game is in Baltimore, the Colts could have the advantage. The Ravens have lost 4 of 5 and are 1-2 in their final 3 home games, including losses to rival Pittsburgh and AFC #1 seed Denver. With a red-hot colts team coming to town, Baltimore will need to be on their A-game to end Sunday with a “W.”

Prediction: Colts 17, Ravens 14

What Andrew Luck has done this year has been nothing short of remarkable. NFL fans have been spoiled in 2012 with record-breaking seasons (Calvin Johnson), incredible comeback stories (Adrian Peterson and Peyton Manning), and amazing rookie performances, including an unheard-of 3 rookie quarterbacks leading their teams to the playoffs (Andrew Luck, Robert Griffin III, and Russell Wilson), but what Luck has done is truly unbelievable. Taking a 2-14 team to 11-5, playing all but 4 games without his head coach, and becoming the leader of a group full of veterans shows why everyone was on the Luck bandwagon last year. Even if the Colts don’t win another game, this season has been everything Colts fans could have expected, and more.

2012 AFC South Champs

The Texans are kings of the regular season, but what will be their playoff fate?

By Jeremy Philipson

Its official.

(AP Photo/Brett Coomer)

The Houston Texans are the 2012 AFC South Division Champions, beating the Indianapolis Colts 29-17 on Sunday to claim the title. This was expected from the veteran team in a division filled with young quarterbacks, but nonetheless, the Texans got it done. A minor victory on the way to their much larger goal, Houston has a lot of work to do before they can think about the Super Bowl.

Week 16/17: The Texans first, and most important, goal for the next two weeks is to stay healthy. There is nothing worse than losing a player to injury during a meaningless game. Also, a win this week (home vs. Minnesota) gives them the No.1 seed in the AFC and ensures them home-field advantage throughout the playoffs. Not only will this give Houston a chance to rest their players in their Week 17 bout with the Colts, it will give them a bye in the first round of the playoffs and guarantees they play in a dome for the rest of their games this season. Next week vs. Minnesota (home), Week 17 at Indianapolis (Lucas Oil Stadium is enclosed), every playoff game at Reliant Stadium in Houston, and if they make it, the Super Bowl is at the Mercedes-Benz Superdome in New Orleans. Houston should come out next week and look to close out the Vikings early and not let Adrian “All Day” Peterson run all over them.

Wild Card Round: Unless Houston loses their final two games, and the Patriots win their final two, the Texans will have a bye this week.

Divisional Round: Based on the current standings, Houston will play the winner of the Baltimore Ravens/Indianapolis Colts wild card game. I would pick Houston over either of these teams, especially given the Ravens current three-game losing streak. The Colts have been incredible this year, but the playoffs are a different animal, and I just can’t trust a rookie quarterback taking down two veteran teams in consecutive weeks.

Conference Round: The Patriots always seem to hit their stride around December, and this year is no different. Assuming New England carries this momentum into Denver and takes out the Broncos in yet another Brady-Manning battle, Houston will get another crack at the Pats. After being embarrassed by the Brady and Co. in New England last week, I think Houston finally gets over the hump, takes out the high-scoring Patriots at home. If the Texans can pull out the “w,” they will be taking their talents to New Orleans to play their final game on February 3, 2013.

The future of the season looks bright for Houston if they can stay healthy and follow their gameplan. I see no reason the Texans can’t run the table and play for their first Vince Lombardi Trophy.

Monday Night Football: Houston Texans vs. New England Patriots

With a potential AFC Championship Game matchup tonight, lets take a look at the keys for each team

By Jeremy Philipson

New England Patriots:

Protect Brady: The Patriots can score at will, especially if Tom Brady has time to stand in the pocket and pick apart the defense. Brady is completing almost 65% of his passes, a testament to his offensive line, but tonight he is facing a defense who allows opposing quarterbacks to complete only 53.8% of passes, best in the NFL. Not only do the Patriots have to keep Brady clean, they have to let Brady get the ball to his 

(AP Photo/Brian Blanco)

receivers. The Texans have knocked down a league-leading 33 passes at the line of scrimmage, 16 more than the next closest team (San Diego). Almost half of these batted balls are credited to JJ Watt, who alone has 15, of which five have turned into interceptions. If the Patriots can keep Brady’s jersey clean and don’t let the Texans’ pass rushers get to him, New England should come away with this game.

Score First: In the Texans’ lone loss this season, against the Packers in Week 6, they fell behind 14-0 after the first quarter, and were losing 21-7 midway through the second. Houston was forced to abandon their game plan, resulting in Arian Foster having his lowest rushing output of the season. If the Patriots can score early and often, Houston will be forced to throw 40+ times, something head coach Gary Kubiak wants to avoid. Scoring won’t be easy against one of the best defenses in the league, but the Patriots have the firepower to make it happen.

Houston Texans:

Stay on the Field: If Tom Brady is on the sidelines, he can’t slice up the Texans defense. To keep him on the bench, the Houston offense must run the ball effectively and win the time of possession battle. This means a heavy dose of Arian Foster and the NFL’s sixth ranked rushing attack, along with its famous play-action passes to keep the defense honest. Converting third downs will be crucial for the Texans to win. Staying on the field and having 10 play drives that use up seven-plus minutes of the clock keeps Brady and the Patriots offense off the field and in a position where they can’t do harm.

(AP Photo/Duane Burleson)

Balanced Attack: Something the Texans have prided themselves on his having a balanced attack with a run-to-pass ratio near 1, and the rankings reflect this. Houston ranks tenth in the NFL in passing offense, near 250 yards per game, and sixth in rushing offense, averaging over 142 yards per game. Foster leads the way for the ground attack, rushing for almost 92 yards per game. Backups Justin Forsett and Ben Tate are contributing too, averaging 30.3 and 28 yards per game, respectively. Through the air, Andre Johnson is the main target, with 93 receiving yards and almost 10 targets per game. The Texans need their offense to be firing on all cylinders, especially on the road facing a Patriots team riding a 6-game win streak.

Prediction: Patriots 31 Texans 17

AFC East: Pats Take on Texans in Monday Night Showdown

By Michael Quagliana

Monday night’s contest between the New England Patriots and the Houston Texans is without a doubt the biggest game on the schedule this weekend, and perhaps of the year. Not for playoff implications (both teams have already clinched), but for outright control of the AFC. Forget the wins and losses; the Patriots and the Texans are the two best teams in the conference.

(AP Courtesy of ESPN.com)

The Patriots hold the throne. They have been on top for over a decade now. Tom Brady hasn’t lost a step, Bill Billichik is still as brilliant as he is monotonous, and the under-the-radar talent continues to pile into their lap.

With tight end Rob Gronkowski on track for a playoff return from his forearm injury, he would return to the lineup with fellow tight end Aaron Hernandez when it matters most. A combination not yet healthy enough to share roles this season, they are two of the most athletic tight ends ever to play in the league, and strength matched with agility wreak havoc on defenses.

In the absence of the tight ends, wide receiver Wes Welker managed to do more than pick up the slack. The eight-year vet has already pulled in more than 1,000 yards on the season and caught 92 passes. Brady, with 3,537 yards, 25 touchdowns, only four interceptions, is flying under the radar for what could potentially be his third NFL MVP award.

Not to go unmentioned, the Patriots have found a big-time running back in Stevan Ridley. The second-year back out of LSU has already rushed for 1,010 yards this season; a rare accomplishment in New England. Ridley’s strength and production at the positioned has garnered even more balance for the New England’s offense, and his nine touchdowns only trail Houston’s Arian Foster’s 13 for most in the league.

Monday will be the toughest test yet for the Patriots, as the 11-1 Texans come to town. Everything the Pats have going for them, the Texans can counteract. Arian Foster has been one of the most dominant running back of 2012. He breaks tackles and keeps the chains moving and give way to an exceptional play action passing game led by the lethal combination of quarterback Matt Schaub and Andre Johnson. Johnson has caught for more than 1,000 yards in sixth seasons now, and has caught for more than 180 yards in two of the last three games.

The Patriots hold control and the up-and-coming Texans are looking to take it away. This matchup is more than just Monday Night Football. It is about the Texans, poised with talent and excellence for years and just now nearing the pinnacle, look to take down the old, witty Patriots. It’s new school versus old school. It’s the new kid on the block versus the big bully.

If the Texans pull off the win in Foxboro, it will make a statement that will resonate for a long time and potentially give the Texans the confidence to carry their season all the way to New Orleans. If the Patriots win, it’ll seem fairly clear: New England is still getting it done and has no signs of slowing down. The throne is for the taking. 

AFC South: Receiver Rankings

 As classes wind down, finals begin, and the temperature drops, I will steal a quote from one of my favorite TV shows: “Winter is coming.”

By Jeremy Philipson

1) Houston Texans

(AP Photo/Jack Dempsey)

The Colts could easily be at the top of this list, but I give the edge to the Texans based on experience. Andre Johnson, Kevin Walter, and tight end Owen Daniels have all been to the playoffs in previous years and know what it takes to win. Johnson, with 1,058 yards on 69 catches and 3 touchdowns, is having his best year since 2009, when he hauled in 101 balls with over 1,500 yards and scored 9 times. But Johnson does not have to be the dominant receiver he was in 2009 because of the strong run game balancing the offense. As the secondary receiver in a run-heavy offense, Walter hasn’t had many chances, but has done well with the chances he has had. Although he is only averaging 3 catches per game, he is making those receptions count with average of 13.3 yards per catch, his highest total since 2008. Rounding out the receivers for Houston is tight end Owen Daniels. Daniels has been the main target in the red zone, accounting for one touchdown every 8 catches. His 6 scores this season broke his previous career high of 5, which he accomplished twice. Houston has the experience and talent to get it done through the air, especially in the playoffs.

2) Indianapolis Colts

Andrew Luck has brought this receiving core back from the dead, and it starts with Reggie Wayne. Wayne is having a career year, with 84 catches for 1,105 yards already. This puts him on pace for over 1,600 yards, which would break his career high of 1,510 yards, set in 2007. Journeyman Donnie Avery, on his third team in his four-year career, has finally found a home in Indianapolis. Avery is on pace to shatter his career high of 674 yards, and being targeted more often than ever. T.Y. Hilton, a rookie from Florida International University, has been far better than expected this year. Hilton has pulled in 33 passes for 488 yards and 5 scores, tops on the team. Fellow rookies Dwayne Allen and Coby Fleener, both tight ends, have combined for 607 yards on 55 catches and 2 scores. Luck has the weapons to perform and will have to continue to play at a high level to advance in the playoffs.

3) Jacksonville Jaguars

The Jaguars have two great playmakers at the wide receiver positions, in second year player Cecil Shorts and highly-touted rookie Justin Blackmon. Shorts, who had only two catches in his rookie season, has been a revelation this year. He has scored in four straight games, averaging 92 yards and over 5 catches during his streak. With three 100-yard games in a 5 game span from weeks 8-12, Shorts had officially become relevant in fantasy circles just in time for playoffs. On the other side, Blackmon had been a disappointment for the first 10 weeks. He then proceeded to explode and fill up the stat sheet with 14 catches, 236 yards, and 1 touchdown. If only the Jaguars had a quarterback to get these receivers the ball.

4) Tennessee Titans

The Titans have 6 players with 25+ receptions. Off to a good start, right? The Titans have 0 players with more than 48 receptions. Wrong; Tennessee has had inconsistent quarterbacking, coupled with injuries and disappointing play at the receiver position. It starts with Kenny Britt, the big, strong wide receiver from Rutgers drafted in 2009. After playing in all 16 games his rookie year, and 12 his sophomore campaign, when he had 775 yards and 9 touchdowns, Britt has only played in 12 games the past two years. He tore his ACL and MCL in September 2011, and has never fully recovered. Secondary receiver Kendall Wright, a rookie from Baylor, has been the top pass-catcher for the Titans this year, with 48 catches for 438 yards and 4 scores. Wright has struggled in his role, and hasn’t gone over 78 yards in any game this season. Eight-year veteran Nate Washington and tight end Jared Cook, both coming off career years in 2011, have been a disappointment thus far. Washington and Cook have combined for only 989 yards on 72 catches, both low numbers for expected top targets. Until Britt gets healthy, and Jake Locker can stay healthy, the Titans will have trouble at the receiver position.