The New York Yankees took Game 1 of the ALDS last night 7-2. Here is what to expect in this series featuring division rivals:
By Zack Potter
October baseball is back in full swing and once again, the
American League East is represented in the postseason by two teams, who happen
to be scheduled to battle each other in the upcoming Divisional Series. With the winner advancing to the American
League Championship Series, the five-game series features two teams who enter
the playoffs with drastically different mentalities.
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| (AP Photo/Nick Wass) |
The first team — the AL East champion New York Yankees — are
very much living up to expectations as a World Series contender and mostly view
their upcoming Divisional Series simply as a stepping stone to their
traditional postseason ambitions: a 28th world championship. Failure to advance past this point would have
to be considered nothing other than unsatisfactory for the experienced and
veteran-laden squad.
The other club — the Wild Card clinching Baltimore Orioles —
have thoroughly exceeded every sort of imaginable preseason expectations, while
ending their streak of 14 straight losing seasons in magnificent fashion. In the team’s first postseason since 1997,
this series represents the influx of new, young talent that has reinvigorated
baseball in the Charm City, while liberating fans, players, and the
organization from a generation of irrelevance.
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| (AP Photo/Nick Wass) |
Despite these enormously different mindsets and
organizational cultures, the Orioles and Yankees have played each other very
competitively in their 18 regular season contests, leading to a 9-9 split of
the season series. In what follows, we
will examine how the two rivals stack up against each other and find out which
club figures to have the upper hand in the American League Divisional Series.
Offense:
The Yankees have more runs, hits, home runs, and stolen
bases than the Orioles. New York walks
more, while striking out less, and maintains a higher team batting average and
on-base percentage. If not for
historically astonishing seasons from superstars Mike Trout and Miguel Cabrera,
Robinson Cano would be fully engulfed in MVP discussion due to another
phenomenal year at the plate.
Quite frankly, the Yankee offense is head and shoulders
above the Orioles. Yes, Yankee Stadium
is the homer-friendliest stadium in the MLB.
But it is not as if Baltimore’s offensive stats are watered down by
playing in a pitcher’s paradise (Camden Yards only trails US Cellular Field,
Miller Park and Yankee Stadium in HR/game).
Therefore, one cannot discredit the Yankees offensive success by
referring to their ballpark.
The fact of the matter is that the Yankees lineup, filled
with perennial all stars and/or future hall of famers such as Cano, Derek
Jeter, Mark Teixeira, Ichiro Suzuki and Alex Rodriguez, is much more dangerous
than the Orioles. And the fact that Nick
Markakis remains out with a broken thumb does nothing but exacerbate the
mismatch.
Pitching:
While the pitching statistics for each team are much closer
than the hitting statistics, the numbers—at least on the surface—still appear
to favor the Yankees. Baltimore’s team
earned run average of 3.90 is just barely higher than New York’s mark of
3.86. Realistically, you could call these
numbers about even, but where the Yankees show their superiority is with the
peripheral statistics. Yankees pitchers
strike out more hitters (8.21 K/9 ratio compared to 7.14 for the Orioles) while
walking fewer (2.68 BB/9 ratio compared to 2.92 for the Orioles).
This indicates that while the team ERA numbers are extremely
close, the Yankees pitchers have relied more on strikeouts and good command
rather than the randomness of balls in play.
As a result, sabermetric ERA estimators such as Fielding
Independent Pitching, True ERA
and Skill-Interactive
ERA all favor Yankee pitching over the Orioles. Basically, what all of this means is that it
is more likely for Yankees to sustain their strong pitching performances into
the postseason than it is for the Orioles.
Where Baltimore does hold an advantage is with their elite
bullpen. The Orioles relievers hold the
5th best ERA in the MLB, while the Yankees are merely middle-of-the-pack. Due to this strength, the Orioles are undefeated
all season when they hold a lead after seven innings. However, since bullpens generally throw only
half the amount of innings that starters throw, the Yankees and their superior
starters still hold the overall pitching advantage in the ALDS.
While Orioles starters like Wei-Yin Chen, Chris Tillman and
Miguel Gonzalez have performed admirably this season, it is still difficult to
tell whether they are actually this good, or just the beneficiaries of a few
timely outs and good defensive plays. It
is hard to imagine anyone favoring that rotation over one that includes
established quality starters like C.C. Sabathia, Hiroki Kuroda and Andy
Pettitte.
Defense:
Defense and its effect on a baseball game is more difficult
to quantify, whereas unlike hitting and pitching, it relies more on scouting
reports and eye-tests rather than raw statistical data. However, we can still use both statistics and
scouting to determine which club may hold an advantage in this category.
On the left side of the infield, the clear advantage goes to
the Orioles, where the slick tandem of third baseman Manny Machado and shortstop
J.J. Hardy have far more range than the aging Alex Rodriguez and Derek
Jeter. However, the right side of the
infield heavily favors the Yankees, with Mark Teixeira and Robinson Cano vastly
outplaying Mark Reynolds and the second base tandem of Ryan Flaherty and Robert
Andino. Behind the plate, Russell Martin
is visibly second best to the reigning gold glove award winner, Matt Wieters.
The outfields for each team look very similar. Both clubs have similarly plus defensive left
fielders in Nate McLouth and Ichiro Suzuki.
The Orioles hold the advantage in center field with Adam Jones, compared
to Curtis Granderson (who was rated the worst defensive outfielder in the league
this season according to Ultimate
Zone Rating.) Meanwhile, New York’s
Nick Swisher is a much better defensively than Chris Davis, who may as well be
a pillar of salt in right field.
Again, this category appears fairly even, although the
Orioles may hold a slim advantage.
Whether or not a margin this small will have any noticeable effect on
the field is very much debatable.
Through this analysis, it does appear as though the Yankees
should be favored over the Orioles in the ALDS.
Both their hitting and pitching look superior to Baltimore’s while they
are only slightly lacking on defense.
That said, the Orioles have been winning games inexplicably all year and
most would agree that Buck Showalter has been the best manager in the American
League in 2012. Therefore, you cannot
completely disregard the Orioles, as nobody has any idea if or when their
magical season will come to a close.
Still though, based on season statistics and historical player
performances, the New York Yankees have to be considered the favorite to win
this series and advance to the American League Championship Series.
