Witnessing the Dramatic Decline of Alex Rodriguez

The Yankees still owe A-Rod five years and $114 million...ouch.

By Zack Potter

(AP Photo/Kathy Willens)

When third baseman Alex Rodriguez opted out of his contract with the New York Yankees following the 2007 season, he was widely regarded as the best player in baseball with many all-star appearances, milestone home runs, and potential world championships yet to come.  Therefore, it would be no surprise that the three-time MVP’s next contract would be one of record-setting proportions.

A-Rod proceeded to fulfill these expectations by re-signing with the Yankees via a 10 year, $275 million contract, which appeared to be relatively close to market value at least for the beginning of the contract.  After all, Rodriguez was an elite superstar capable of carrying a team into the postseason.  However, many feared that A-Rod would become a liability toward the end of the contract, as he was guaranteed upwards of $20 million per season until 2017, when he would be 42 years old.

In the time elapsed since A-Rod signed that contract, there have injuries, steroid accusations and admissions, a steep drop-off in performance, gambling scandals and playoff ‘benchings’.  As of right now, it is appearing as though those cynics’ worst fears are coming true.  Alex Rodriguez is quickly becoming one of, if not the most, overpaid players in baseball.  His numbers on the field no longer match up with his paychecks earned off of it. 

Since his phenomenal 2007 season, A-Rod’s hits, home runs, walks, and even stolen bases have all declined.  It has been two years since he has hit 20 homers in a year.  His Weighted On-Base Average in 2012 was the lowest it had been since his rookie year with the Mariners in 1995.  His steady decline was epitomized on a national scale when he was repeatedly pinch hit for or replaced by lesser names such as Eric Chavez and Raul Ibanez.

It appears as though A-Rod has been exposed.  Opposing pitchers no longer fear him.  His bat can no longer be placed in the middle of the order.  Even his defense has taken a step back according to Ultimate Zone Rating.

Is there any hope for Rodriguez though?  Is it possible that this postseason—and perhaps his 2012 year as a whole—is just an aberration?  Could A-Rod simply be the victim of a few unlucky breaks in a small sample size and he will return to perennial all-star form in no time?  Quite frankly, signs point to no. 

His strikeout percentage is the highest it has been since 1995 and his walk percentage is the lowest it has been since 1998.  Clearly, he is just not as good anymore at putting the bat on the ball, which is represented by his career-low contact percentage of 74.5%. 

The one saving grace for A-Rod is that his line-drive percentage, at 22.5%, is his highest in 9 years, indicating that when he is actually able to connect with a ball, he is still able to drive it for base hits.  This most likely explains the fact that his Batting Average of Balls in Play is his highest since 2008.

Still though, with his diminished plate discipline and declining contact abilities, one can expect opposing pitchers to give A-Rod less good pitches to hit, leading to even more strikeouts and fewer base hits, fewer home runs and a lower batting average.

What does this mean for the Yankees?  Well, it most likely means that in the next couple years, Rodriguez will indisputably pass Vernon Wells and Alfonso Soriano for the most embarrassing contract in baseball.  While the free-spending Yankees are certainly more equipped to handle that sort of albatross contract than almost any other team, the contract will still limit their options to improve the club. 

Despite all this, A-Rod will probably open next year as New York’s starting third baseman.  Rodriguez probably still even has some more moments of brilliance left in his Yankee career, but in the next five years, they will become fewer and farther between.  And once we reach, 2015, 2016 and 2017, it is entirely possible, if not likely, that the Yankees will have a bench player making over $20 million dollars. 

While it is inevitable that A-Rod would decline over the course of his mega-contract signed in 2007, but it is hard to believe that anyone would have anticipated a fall from grace as dramatic as the one we are currently witnessing by the former superstar, and current postseason benchwarmer.

ALDS Preview

The New York Yankees took Game 1 of the ALDS last night 7-2. Here is what to expect in this series featuring division rivals:

By Zack Potter

October baseball is back in full swing and once again, the American League East is represented in the postseason by two teams, who happen to be scheduled to battle each other in the upcoming Divisional Series.  With the winner advancing to the American League Championship Series, the five-game series features two teams who enter the playoffs with drastically different mentalities.

(AP Photo/Nick Wass)

The first team — the AL East champion New York Yankees — are very much living up to expectations as a World Series contender and mostly view their upcoming Divisional Series simply as a stepping stone to their traditional postseason ambitions: a 28th world championship.  Failure to advance past this point would have to be considered nothing other than unsatisfactory for the experienced and veteran-laden squad.

The other club — the Wild Card clinching Baltimore Orioles — have thoroughly exceeded every sort of imaginable preseason expectations, while ending their streak of 14 straight losing seasons in magnificent fashion.  In the team’s first postseason since 1997, this series represents the influx of new, young talent that has reinvigorated baseball in the Charm City, while liberating fans, players, and the organization from a generation of irrelevance.

(AP Photo/Nick Wass)

Despite these enormously different mindsets and organizational cultures, the Orioles and Yankees have played each other very competitively in their 18 regular season contests, leading to a 9-9 split of the season series.  In what follows, we will examine how the two rivals stack up against each other and find out which club figures to have the upper hand in the American League Divisional Series.

Offense:

The Yankees have more runs, hits, home runs, and stolen bases than the Orioles.  New York walks more, while striking out less, and maintains a higher team batting average and on-base percentage.  If not for historically astonishing seasons from superstars Mike Trout and Miguel Cabrera, Robinson Cano would be fully engulfed in MVP discussion due to another phenomenal year at the plate. 

Quite frankly, the Yankee offense is head and shoulders above the Orioles.  Yes, Yankee Stadium is the homer-friendliest stadium in the MLB.  But it is not as if Baltimore’s offensive stats are watered down by playing in a pitcher’s paradise (Camden Yards only trails US Cellular Field, Miller Park and Yankee Stadium in HR/game).  Therefore, one cannot discredit the Yankees offensive success by referring to their ballpark.

The fact of the matter is that the Yankees lineup, filled with perennial all stars and/or future hall of famers such as Cano, Derek Jeter, Mark Teixeira, Ichiro Suzuki and Alex Rodriguez, is much more dangerous than the Orioles.  And the fact that Nick Markakis remains out with a broken thumb does nothing but exacerbate the mismatch.

Pitching:

While the pitching statistics for each team are much closer than the hitting statistics, the numbers—at least on the surface—still appear to favor the Yankees.  Baltimore’s team earned run average of 3.90 is just barely higher than New York’s mark of 3.86.  Realistically, you could call these numbers about even, but where the Yankees show their superiority is with the peripheral statistics.  Yankees pitchers strike out more hitters (8.21 K/9 ratio compared to 7.14 for the Orioles) while walking fewer (2.68 BB/9 ratio compared to 2.92 for the Orioles).

This indicates that while the team ERA numbers are extremely close, the Yankees pitchers have relied more on strikeouts and good command rather than the randomness of balls in play.  As a result, sabermetric ERA estimators such as Fielding Independent Pitching, True ERA and Skill-Interactive ERA all favor Yankee pitching over the Orioles.  Basically, what all of this means is that it is more likely for Yankees to sustain their strong pitching performances into the postseason than it is for the Orioles. 

Where Baltimore does hold an advantage is with their elite bullpen.  The Orioles relievers hold the 5th best ERA in the MLB, while the Yankees are merely middle-of-the-pack.  Due to this strength, the Orioles are undefeated all season when they hold a lead after seven innings.  However, since bullpens generally throw only half the amount of innings that starters throw, the Yankees and their superior starters still hold the overall pitching advantage in the ALDS. 

While Orioles starters like Wei-Yin Chen, Chris Tillman and Miguel Gonzalez have performed admirably this season, it is still difficult to tell whether they are actually this good, or just the beneficiaries of a few timely outs and good defensive plays.  It is hard to imagine anyone favoring that rotation over one that includes established quality starters like C.C. Sabathia, Hiroki Kuroda and Andy Pettitte.

Defense:

Defense and its effect on a baseball game is more difficult to quantify, whereas unlike hitting and pitching, it relies more on scouting reports and eye-tests rather than raw statistical data.  However, we can still use both statistics and scouting to determine which club may hold an advantage in this category.

On the left side of the infield, the clear advantage goes to the Orioles, where the slick tandem of third baseman Manny Machado and shortstop J.J. Hardy have far more range than the aging Alex Rodriguez and Derek Jeter.  However, the right side of the infield heavily favors the Yankees, with Mark Teixeira and Robinson Cano vastly outplaying Mark Reynolds and the second base tandem of Ryan Flaherty and Robert Andino.  Behind the plate, Russell Martin is visibly second best to the reigning gold glove award winner, Matt Wieters.

The outfields for each team look very similar.  Both clubs have similarly plus defensive left fielders in Nate McLouth and Ichiro Suzuki.  The Orioles hold the advantage in center field with Adam Jones, compared to Curtis Granderson (who was rated the worst defensive outfielder in the league this season according to Ultimate Zone Rating.)  Meanwhile, New York’s Nick Swisher is a much better defensively than Chris Davis, who may as well be a pillar of salt in right field. 

Again, this category appears fairly even, although the Orioles may hold a slim advantage.  Whether or not a margin this small will have any noticeable effect on the field is very much debatable.

Through this analysis, it does appear as though the Yankees should be favored over the Orioles in the ALDS.  Both their hitting and pitching look superior to Baltimore’s while they are only slightly lacking on defense.  That said, the Orioles have been winning games inexplicably all year and most would agree that Buck Showalter has been the best manager in the American League in 2012.  Therefore, you cannot completely disregard the Orioles, as nobody has any idea if or when their magical season will come to a close.  Still though, based on season statistics and historical player performances, the New York Yankees have to be considered the favorite to win this series and advance to the American League Championship Series.