Witnessing the Dramatic Decline of Alex Rodriguez

The Yankees still owe A-Rod five years and $114 million...ouch.

By Zack Potter

(AP Photo/Kathy Willens)

When third baseman Alex Rodriguez opted out of his contract with the New York Yankees following the 2007 season, he was widely regarded as the best player in baseball with many all-star appearances, milestone home runs, and potential world championships yet to come.  Therefore, it would be no surprise that the three-time MVP’s next contract would be one of record-setting proportions.

A-Rod proceeded to fulfill these expectations by re-signing with the Yankees via a 10 year, $275 million contract, which appeared to be relatively close to market value at least for the beginning of the contract.  After all, Rodriguez was an elite superstar capable of carrying a team into the postseason.  However, many feared that A-Rod would become a liability toward the end of the contract, as he was guaranteed upwards of $20 million per season until 2017, when he would be 42 years old.

In the time elapsed since A-Rod signed that contract, there have injuries, steroid accusations and admissions, a steep drop-off in performance, gambling scandals and playoff ‘benchings’.  As of right now, it is appearing as though those cynics’ worst fears are coming true.  Alex Rodriguez is quickly becoming one of, if not the most, overpaid players in baseball.  His numbers on the field no longer match up with his paychecks earned off of it. 

Since his phenomenal 2007 season, A-Rod’s hits, home runs, walks, and even stolen bases have all declined.  It has been two years since he has hit 20 homers in a year.  His Weighted On-Base Average in 2012 was the lowest it had been since his rookie year with the Mariners in 1995.  His steady decline was epitomized on a national scale when he was repeatedly pinch hit for or replaced by lesser names such as Eric Chavez and Raul Ibanez.

It appears as though A-Rod has been exposed.  Opposing pitchers no longer fear him.  His bat can no longer be placed in the middle of the order.  Even his defense has taken a step back according to Ultimate Zone Rating.

Is there any hope for Rodriguez though?  Is it possible that this postseason—and perhaps his 2012 year as a whole—is just an aberration?  Could A-Rod simply be the victim of a few unlucky breaks in a small sample size and he will return to perennial all-star form in no time?  Quite frankly, signs point to no. 

His strikeout percentage is the highest it has been since 1995 and his walk percentage is the lowest it has been since 1998.  Clearly, he is just not as good anymore at putting the bat on the ball, which is represented by his career-low contact percentage of 74.5%. 

The one saving grace for A-Rod is that his line-drive percentage, at 22.5%, is his highest in 9 years, indicating that when he is actually able to connect with a ball, he is still able to drive it for base hits.  This most likely explains the fact that his Batting Average of Balls in Play is his highest since 2008.

Still though, with his diminished plate discipline and declining contact abilities, one can expect opposing pitchers to give A-Rod less good pitches to hit, leading to even more strikeouts and fewer base hits, fewer home runs and a lower batting average.

What does this mean for the Yankees?  Well, it most likely means that in the next couple years, Rodriguez will indisputably pass Vernon Wells and Alfonso Soriano for the most embarrassing contract in baseball.  While the free-spending Yankees are certainly more equipped to handle that sort of albatross contract than almost any other team, the contract will still limit their options to improve the club. 

Despite all this, A-Rod will probably open next year as New York’s starting third baseman.  Rodriguez probably still even has some more moments of brilliance left in his Yankee career, but in the next five years, they will become fewer and farther between.  And once we reach, 2015, 2016 and 2017, it is entirely possible, if not likely, that the Yankees will have a bench player making over $20 million dollars. 

While it is inevitable that A-Rod would decline over the course of his mega-contract signed in 2007, but it is hard to believe that anyone would have anticipated a fall from grace as dramatic as the one we are currently witnessing by the former superstar, and current postseason benchwarmer.