Monday Night Football: Houston Texans vs. New England Patriots

With a potential AFC Championship Game matchup tonight, lets take a look at the keys for each team

By Jeremy Philipson

New England Patriots:

Protect Brady: The Patriots can score at will, especially if Tom Brady has time to stand in the pocket and pick apart the defense. Brady is completing almost 65% of his passes, a testament to his offensive line, but tonight he is facing a defense who allows opposing quarterbacks to complete only 53.8% of passes, best in the NFL. Not only do the Patriots have to keep Brady clean, they have to let Brady get the ball to his 

(AP Photo/Brian Blanco)

receivers. The Texans have knocked down a league-leading 33 passes at the line of scrimmage, 16 more than the next closest team (San Diego). Almost half of these batted balls are credited to JJ Watt, who alone has 15, of which five have turned into interceptions. If the Patriots can keep Brady’s jersey clean and don’t let the Texans’ pass rushers get to him, New England should come away with this game.

Score First: In the Texans’ lone loss this season, against the Packers in Week 6, they fell behind 14-0 after the first quarter, and were losing 21-7 midway through the second. Houston was forced to abandon their game plan, resulting in Arian Foster having his lowest rushing output of the season. If the Patriots can score early and often, Houston will be forced to throw 40+ times, something head coach Gary Kubiak wants to avoid. Scoring won’t be easy against one of the best defenses in the league, but the Patriots have the firepower to make it happen.

Houston Texans:

Stay on the Field: If Tom Brady is on the sidelines, he can’t slice up the Texans defense. To keep him on the bench, the Houston offense must run the ball effectively and win the time of possession battle. This means a heavy dose of Arian Foster and the NFL’s sixth ranked rushing attack, along with its famous play-action passes to keep the defense honest. Converting third downs will be crucial for the Texans to win. Staying on the field and having 10 play drives that use up seven-plus minutes of the clock keeps Brady and the Patriots offense off the field and in a position where they can’t do harm.

(AP Photo/Duane Burleson)

Balanced Attack: Something the Texans have prided themselves on his having a balanced attack with a run-to-pass ratio near 1, and the rankings reflect this. Houston ranks tenth in the NFL in passing offense, near 250 yards per game, and sixth in rushing offense, averaging over 142 yards per game. Foster leads the way for the ground attack, rushing for almost 92 yards per game. Backups Justin Forsett and Ben Tate are contributing too, averaging 30.3 and 28 yards per game, respectively. Through the air, Andre Johnson is the main target, with 93 receiving yards and almost 10 targets per game. The Texans need their offense to be firing on all cylinders, especially on the road facing a Patriots team riding a 6-game win streak.

Prediction: Patriots 31 Texans 17