Monday Night Football: Houston Texans vs. New England Patriots

With a potential AFC Championship Game matchup tonight, lets take a look at the keys for each team

By Jeremy Philipson

New England Patriots:

Protect Brady: The Patriots can score at will, especially if Tom Brady has time to stand in the pocket and pick apart the defense. Brady is completing almost 65% of his passes, a testament to his offensive line, but tonight he is facing a defense who allows opposing quarterbacks to complete only 53.8% of passes, best in the NFL. Not only do the Patriots have to keep Brady clean, they have to let Brady get the ball to his 

(AP Photo/Brian Blanco)

receivers. The Texans have knocked down a league-leading 33 passes at the line of scrimmage, 16 more than the next closest team (San Diego). Almost half of these batted balls are credited to JJ Watt, who alone has 15, of which five have turned into interceptions. If the Patriots can keep Brady’s jersey clean and don’t let the Texans’ pass rushers get to him, New England should come away with this game.

Score First: In the Texans’ lone loss this season, against the Packers in Week 6, they fell behind 14-0 after the first quarter, and were losing 21-7 midway through the second. Houston was forced to abandon their game plan, resulting in Arian Foster having his lowest rushing output of the season. If the Patriots can score early and often, Houston will be forced to throw 40+ times, something head coach Gary Kubiak wants to avoid. Scoring won’t be easy against one of the best defenses in the league, but the Patriots have the firepower to make it happen.

Houston Texans:

Stay on the Field: If Tom Brady is on the sidelines, he can’t slice up the Texans defense. To keep him on the bench, the Houston offense must run the ball effectively and win the time of possession battle. This means a heavy dose of Arian Foster and the NFL’s sixth ranked rushing attack, along with its famous play-action passes to keep the defense honest. Converting third downs will be crucial for the Texans to win. Staying on the field and having 10 play drives that use up seven-plus minutes of the clock keeps Brady and the Patriots offense off the field and in a position where they can’t do harm.

(AP Photo/Duane Burleson)

Balanced Attack: Something the Texans have prided themselves on his having a balanced attack with a run-to-pass ratio near 1, and the rankings reflect this. Houston ranks tenth in the NFL in passing offense, near 250 yards per game, and sixth in rushing offense, averaging over 142 yards per game. Foster leads the way for the ground attack, rushing for almost 92 yards per game. Backups Justin Forsett and Ben Tate are contributing too, averaging 30.3 and 28 yards per game, respectively. Through the air, Andre Johnson is the main target, with 93 receiving yards and almost 10 targets per game. The Texans need their offense to be firing on all cylinders, especially on the road facing a Patriots team riding a 6-game win streak.

Prediction: Patriots 31 Texans 17

AFC South: Running Back Rankings

After a Thanksgiving break filled with family, football, and some stuff I shouldn’t mention, I’m returning to my positional rankings. Next week: Wide Receivers.

1) Arian Foster (Houston Texans)

(Getty Images/Chris Greythen)

After signing with Houston as an undrafted free agent in May 2009, Foster has become one of the best backs in the NFL. As the workhouse for the top team in the AFC, the University of Tennessee product, has been a tank over the past three years. During his breakout season in 2010, Foster averaged, 4.9 yards per carry (YPC), scored 16 touchdowns, and averaged an incredible 101 yards per game, 6 more than the next highest rusher. Last year, Foster was slightly less effective, with 4.4 YPC and 94.2 yards per game, and finished fifth in rushing. With only 278 carries a year ago, Foster was fresh for the playoffs after sharing time with Ben Tate in the regular season. Through 11 games this year, Foster has almost eclipsed his total, with 269 carries through week 12. The Texans have all but wrapped up their division, and it will be interesting to see if Foster’s workload decreases to get him ready for the playoffs.

2) Maurice Jones-Drew (Jacksonville Jaguars)

As the most consistent back among the division, Jones-Drew takes his place in the second spot. Although he is nursing a foot injury this season, he has been a model of consistency and has usually had a clean bill of health throughout his career. Jones-Drew has missed only three games in his first six years, with his best years being from 2009-2011, where he never rushed for less than 1,324 yards nor averaged less than 4.4 YPC. “Mo-Jo” has been the only weapon on the Jaguars for most of his career, and has only had one year with a Pro Bowl receiver/tight end. Even while being the focus of the defensive gameplan for much of his time with the Jaguars, Jones-Drew led the league in rushing last year, and was a top-5 rusher three years in a row.

3) Chris Johnson (Tennessee Titans)

Yes, everyone knows “CJ2K” for his incredible 2009 season where he rushed for 2,006 yards. But, what else has he done? Quite a bit, actually. Johnson averaged 4.9 YPC as a rookie in 2009, rushing for 1,228 yards while missing only one game. Over his next three seasons, Johnson played every game and averaged 4.7 YPC, while racking up over 4,400 yards. Not only has he been active in the ground game, but has been a weapon through the air. The former ECU Pirate has never caught fewer than 43 passes in a full season, with his career-high of 57 catches last year. Johnson looks to be back to his old self after a down year last year, and is projected to rush for almost 1,400 yards this season. Look for CJ2K to be around the 1,300-yard mark for the next few years.

4) Donald Brown/Vick Ballard/Delone Carter (Indianapolis Colts)

The Colts have had a lot of success this year, but have work to do on their ground game. First-stringer Donald Brown has been less than impressive, averaging 4.1 YPC on 92 carries this season while nursing a knee injury. Rookie Vick Ballard and second-year back Delone Carter have played significant minutes in place of the injured Brown. Ballard, the rookie from Mississippi State, has been the go-to back, averaging 60 yards almost 15 carries per game over his last 6 games. Carter has been used sparingly, mainly as a goal line back, with 2 scores in 29 carries this year. Until Brown gets healthy and proves he is durable enough to shoulder the load, expect the Colts to lean on Andrew Luck to win games.