AFC South: Midseason Report Card

With the season halfway over, I decided it was time to put on my Professor hat and hand out some midseason grades. Without further ado, here are my grades for the AFC South.

By Professor Philipson

Houston Texans (7-1): A-

Strengths: Running game and defense

The Texans are tailor-made for the long haul, as a good running game and defense are the hallmarks of a Super Bowl contender. Think Matt Schaub will want to throw the ball 40 times in January in a cold, snowy Gillette Stadium? Think again. Built around Arian Foster on offense and JJ Watt on defense, Houston should have no problem securing the No.1 seed in the AFC, which would guarantee them home field throughout the playoffs. Assuming the Texans wrap up the top seed, the last outdoor game they will play will be December 10 in New England, especially important to a team used to playing in a dome. If you are a Texans fan, book your flight for New Orleans (but make sure it is refundable).

Weaknesses: Playing from behind

In their only loss of the season, the Texans fell behind 14-0, and were down 21-7 to the Packers halfway through the second quarter. Being down early, the Texans couldn’t establish the run game and had to catch up through the air. Arian Foster totaled only 29 yards on 17 carries, both season lows. If Houston is going to make it all the way to Super Bowl XLVII in New Orleans, they are going to need to get the lead early.

Second Half Outlook

With two of their final three games against AFC South rival Indianapolis, the Texans’ only serious threat to its division crown is Andrew Luck’s Colts. Houston cannot get complacent with just being in the playoffs. The upstart Colts will have a lot to say in who wins the division, and the last three games of the season could determine the winner. Houston needs to keep their foot on the gas the second half of the season to ensure they win the AFC South.

Indianapolis Colts (5-3): B+

Strengths: Andrew Luck and leadership

Wow. After matching their win total from last season in their first four games, and eclipsing it in their sixth, it would be fair to say the Colts are playing with some serious swag. Riding a three-game win streak and playing Jacksonville on Thursday night, the Colts could be 6-3 heading into their huge Week 11 matchup at New England. The reasons? The poise and passion of Andrew Luck, not only showcasing his skill set each week, but raising the level of play of everyone around him. Reggie Wayne, thought to be on his way out, is having a career renaissance, leading the NFL in receiving yards. The other reason is head coach Chuck Pagano, who has been recently diagnosed with leukemia. While he has been in the hospital receiving treatment, the Colts have played with passion and emotion, keeping their playoff hopes alive. Look for Indianapolis to be in the mix for one of the AFC Wild Card spots.

Weaknesses: Rushing game

Quite the opposite from Houston, Indianapolis ranks in the bottom half of the league in rushing yards per game. With no player gaining more than 84 yards on the ground in any game this season, the Colts will need to find a solid rushing attack if they are to advance anywhere in the playoffs. Andrew Luck has been phenomenal, but counting on a rookie to throw for 300+ yards every game is foolish. With starter Donald Brown still sidelined with a balky knee, backups Vick Ballard and Delone Carter will need to shoulder the load.

Second Half Outlook

This season is already a success by many standards, but the Colts have no intentions of stopping now. With the AFC playoff race wide open, Indianapolis has positioned themselves favorably for one of the wild card spots. A manageable second half schedule gives them games against the Bills, Titans, and Chiefs within a three-week span. The Colts will need to win all of these, along with at least one of their two remaining games against Houston to start thinking playoffs.

Tennessee Titans (3-6): C+

 

Strengths: Chris Johnson and close games

There hasn’t been a lot to be excited about this year in Tennessee this year, with running back Chris Johnson being the lone bright spot on offense. Although he started the season slow (okay, REALLY slow), he has picked it up of late, rushing for 526 yards in his past 4 games. Another reason to believe in the Titans is their record in games decided by one touchdown or less. If they can keep the game close, their early season record in these games, which is 3-1 (including two overtime games), shows that they will come out on top.  

Weaknesses: Defense and staying healthy

The Titans’ defense is bad to say the least. The defense has allowed 30+ points in all but two games this season, and has surrendered 38+ points on four occasions. If Tennessee is even going to think about a second half run, their 30^th ranked defense must improve. This team has also been bitten by the injury bug on both sides of the ball. With injuries to starting quarterback Jake Locker, number-one wide receiver Kenny Britt, and safety Michael Griffin, among others, the Titans haven’t had their best team on the field this season. With tough games against Miami, Houston, Indianapolis, and Green Bay on the horizon, Titans fans should be looking toward next year.

Second Half Outlook

As previously mentioned, the Titans have a nasty second half schedule, playing Miami, Houston, and Indianapolis in three of their next four games. If Jake Locker can come back and play at a high level, and Chris Johnson can continue his hot play of late, Tennessee could have a lot of say in who wins this division.

Jacksonville Jaguars (1-7): D 

Strengths: Rushing game and youth

If you are Jaguars fan, I apologize. The team is 1-7, might be moving to London, and has their best player out for a few weeks. The glimmer of hope for the Jaguars is their youth. On a roster that is home to only eight players in their 30’s, there are twenty-seven players 25-years-old or younger. This youth will be critical to Jacksonville’s future, and if they can develop these players into solid, NFL role players, the Jags could climb to the top of the division in the coming years.

Weaknesses: Offense and Defense

If your two weaknesses are offense and defense, you need some help. The Jags rank at the bottom of the league in passing and rushing offense and defense, and come in dead last in total offense and passing offense. Second-year quarterback Blaine Gabbert has not taken the next step, and rookie wide receiver Justin Blackmon has failed to make the immediate impact past rookies AJ Green and Julio Jones have. It doesn’t help that star running back Maurice Jones-Drew went down with a foot injury a few weeks ago, but Blackmon, and especially Gabbert, don’t have time to make any excuses. In his second year, Gabbert is running out of time to prove he can cut it.

Second Half Outlook

Mark your calendar for April 25, 2013. That is the date of the NFL draft. The Jaguars are tied with Kansas City for the worst record in the league, and are on a fast track one of the top picks in the draft. With a lot of holes to fill on both sides of the ball, Jacksonville won’t be making any noise this year.