AFC South: Receiver Rankings

 As classes wind down, finals begin, and the temperature drops, I will steal a quote from one of my favorite TV shows: “Winter is coming.”

By Jeremy Philipson

1) Houston Texans

(AP Photo/Jack Dempsey)

The Colts could easily be at the top of this list, but I give the edge to the Texans based on experience. Andre Johnson, Kevin Walter, and tight end Owen Daniels have all been to the playoffs in previous years and know what it takes to win. Johnson, with 1,058 yards on 69 catches and 3 touchdowns, is having his best year since 2009, when he hauled in 101 balls with over 1,500 yards and scored 9 times. But Johnson does not have to be the dominant receiver he was in 2009 because of the strong run game balancing the offense. As the secondary receiver in a run-heavy offense, Walter hasn’t had many chances, but has done well with the chances he has had. Although he is only averaging 3 catches per game, he is making those receptions count with average of 13.3 yards per catch, his highest total since 2008. Rounding out the receivers for Houston is tight end Owen Daniels. Daniels has been the main target in the red zone, accounting for one touchdown every 8 catches. His 6 scores this season broke his previous career high of 5, which he accomplished twice. Houston has the experience and talent to get it done through the air, especially in the playoffs.

2) Indianapolis Colts

Andrew Luck has brought this receiving core back from the dead, and it starts with Reggie Wayne. Wayne is having a career year, with 84 catches for 1,105 yards already. This puts him on pace for over 1,600 yards, which would break his career high of 1,510 yards, set in 2007. Journeyman Donnie Avery, on his third team in his four-year career, has finally found a home in Indianapolis. Avery is on pace to shatter his career high of 674 yards, and being targeted more often than ever. T.Y. Hilton, a rookie from Florida International University, has been far better than expected this year. Hilton has pulled in 33 passes for 488 yards and 5 scores, tops on the team. Fellow rookies Dwayne Allen and Coby Fleener, both tight ends, have combined for 607 yards on 55 catches and 2 scores. Luck has the weapons to perform and will have to continue to play at a high level to advance in the playoffs.

3) Jacksonville Jaguars

The Jaguars have two great playmakers at the wide receiver positions, in second year player Cecil Shorts and highly-touted rookie Justin Blackmon. Shorts, who had only two catches in his rookie season, has been a revelation this year. He has scored in four straight games, averaging 92 yards and over 5 catches during his streak. With three 100-yard games in a 5 game span from weeks 8-12, Shorts had officially become relevant in fantasy circles just in time for playoffs. On the other side, Blackmon had been a disappointment for the first 10 weeks. He then proceeded to explode and fill up the stat sheet with 14 catches, 236 yards, and 1 touchdown. If only the Jaguars had a quarterback to get these receivers the ball.

4) Tennessee Titans

The Titans have 6 players with 25+ receptions. Off to a good start, right? The Titans have 0 players with more than 48 receptions. Wrong; Tennessee has had inconsistent quarterbacking, coupled with injuries and disappointing play at the receiver position. It starts with Kenny Britt, the big, strong wide receiver from Rutgers drafted in 2009. After playing in all 16 games his rookie year, and 12 his sophomore campaign, when he had 775 yards and 9 touchdowns, Britt has only played in 12 games the past two years. He tore his ACL and MCL in September 2011, and has never fully recovered. Secondary receiver Kendall Wright, a rookie from Baylor, has been the top pass-catcher for the Titans this year, with 48 catches for 438 yards and 4 scores. Wright has struggled in his role, and hasn’t gone over 78 yards in any game this season. Eight-year veteran Nate Washington and tight end Jared Cook, both coming off career years in 2011, have been a disappointment thus far. Washington and Cook have combined for only 989 yards on 72 catches, both low numbers for expected top targets. Until Britt gets healthy, and Jake Locker can stay healthy, the Titans will have trouble at the receiver position.

AFC South: Running Back Rankings

After a Thanksgiving break filled with family, football, and some stuff I shouldn’t mention, I’m returning to my positional rankings. Next week: Wide Receivers.

1) Arian Foster (Houston Texans)

(Getty Images/Chris Greythen)

After signing with Houston as an undrafted free agent in May 2009, Foster has become one of the best backs in the NFL. As the workhouse for the top team in the AFC, the University of Tennessee product, has been a tank over the past three years. During his breakout season in 2010, Foster averaged, 4.9 yards per carry (YPC), scored 16 touchdowns, and averaged an incredible 101 yards per game, 6 more than the next highest rusher. Last year, Foster was slightly less effective, with 4.4 YPC and 94.2 yards per game, and finished fifth in rushing. With only 278 carries a year ago, Foster was fresh for the playoffs after sharing time with Ben Tate in the regular season. Through 11 games this year, Foster has almost eclipsed his total, with 269 carries through week 12. The Texans have all but wrapped up their division, and it will be interesting to see if Foster’s workload decreases to get him ready for the playoffs.

2) Maurice Jones-Drew (Jacksonville Jaguars)

As the most consistent back among the division, Jones-Drew takes his place in the second spot. Although he is nursing a foot injury this season, he has been a model of consistency and has usually had a clean bill of health throughout his career. Jones-Drew has missed only three games in his first six years, with his best years being from 2009-2011, where he never rushed for less than 1,324 yards nor averaged less than 4.4 YPC. “Mo-Jo” has been the only weapon on the Jaguars for most of his career, and has only had one year with a Pro Bowl receiver/tight end. Even while being the focus of the defensive gameplan for much of his time with the Jaguars, Jones-Drew led the league in rushing last year, and was a top-5 rusher three years in a row.

3) Chris Johnson (Tennessee Titans)

Yes, everyone knows “CJ2K” for his incredible 2009 season where he rushed for 2,006 yards. But, what else has he done? Quite a bit, actually. Johnson averaged 4.9 YPC as a rookie in 2009, rushing for 1,228 yards while missing only one game. Over his next three seasons, Johnson played every game and averaged 4.7 YPC, while racking up over 4,400 yards. Not only has he been active in the ground game, but has been a weapon through the air. The former ECU Pirate has never caught fewer than 43 passes in a full season, with his career-high of 57 catches last year. Johnson looks to be back to his old self after a down year last year, and is projected to rush for almost 1,400 yards this season. Look for CJ2K to be around the 1,300-yard mark for the next few years.

4) Donald Brown/Vick Ballard/Delone Carter (Indianapolis Colts)

The Colts have had a lot of success this year, but have work to do on their ground game. First-stringer Donald Brown has been less than impressive, averaging 4.1 YPC on 92 carries this season while nursing a knee injury. Rookie Vick Ballard and second-year back Delone Carter have played significant minutes in place of the injured Brown. Ballard, the rookie from Mississippi State, has been the go-to back, averaging 60 yards almost 15 carries per game over his last 6 games. Carter has been used sparingly, mainly as a goal line back, with 2 scores in 29 carries this year. Until Brown gets healthy and proves he is durable enough to shoulder the load, expect the Colts to lean on Andrew Luck to win games.

AFC South: Quarterback Rankings

Over the next few weeks, I’ll be ranking each of the position groups in the AFC South. Up this week: Quarterbacks.

(AP Photo/Phelan Ebenhack)

By Jeremy Philipson

1) Andrew Luck (Indianapolis Colts)

No one has done more with less this year than Andrew Luck. He became the face of the Colts’ franchise and has turned an awful team into a respectable one looking to land a playoff berth. Take at look at these two stat lines:

Player A: 59.2% completion, 1,814 yards, 12 touchdowns, 10 interceptions, 0 rushing touchdowns

Player B: 57.5% completion, 2,631 yards, 10 touchdowns, 9 interceptions, 5 rushing touchdowns

Player A has a better completion percentage, better touchdown to interception ratio, but has thrown for over 800 fewer yards. Player B, has 3 more total touchdowns, and clearly his team needs him to throw a lot to win games.

Player A is Jay Cutler. Player B is Andrew Luck. With almost no rushing game and an aging defense, Luck has been asked to be the best player on the Indianapolis roster. He has revived a team that was 2-14 a year ago, and will be a mainstay at Lucas Oil Stadium for years to come.

2) Matt Schaub (Houston Texans)

While many may think that Schaub deserves to be at the top of this list, he has been the beneficiary having an All-Pro running back behind him and a top ranked defense. Schaub has been just as efficient as last year, throwing for a high completion percentage, but less yards and a lower average completion. Although Schaub has less yards, yards, and passing touchdowns, he does not need to throw for 4,500 yards or 40 touchdowns with Arian Foster behind him. 2009 Matt Schaub may have been at the top of this list, where he threw for 4,770 yards and 29 touchdowns, but 2012 Matt Schaub is a much more efficient player, better fit for a Super Bowl run.

3) Jake Locker/Matt Hasselbeck (Tennessee Titans)

Because Locker has been hurt, and has only appeared in 5 games, the Titans’ quarterback duo will be evaluated as one player. With that being said, their combined stats are 61.5% completion, 2,270 yards, 13 touchdowns, and 7 interceptions. Had one player put up those numbers they would be high on this list. The Titans are all in on Locker as the quarterback of the future, and should be excited with his progress thus far. But, until he can stay healthy for an entire season, he will be third best in the AFC South.

4) Blaine Gabbert (Jacksonville Jaguars)

Blaine Gabbert finds himself at the bottom of this list for numerous reasons. First off, he has not developed as expected in second year in the league. Although his completion percentage is way up (+7.2%) and is on pace to throw for more yards and touchdowns, that success has not translated to the win column. Last year, the Jaguars were 5-11 with Gabbert starting 15 games. This year, Jacksonville is only 1-8 and without running back Maurice Jones-Drew, could end up with only a few wins. Until Gabbert starts putting up numbers in the win column, he will be looking up at the rest of the quarterbacks in this division.

Next week: Running Backs

AFC South: Midseason Report Card

With the season halfway over, I decided it was time to put on my Professor hat and hand out some midseason grades. Without further ado, here are my grades for the AFC South.

By Professor Philipson

Houston Texans (7-1): A-

Strengths: Running game and defense

The Texans are tailor-made for the long haul, as a good running game and defense are the hallmarks of a Super Bowl contender. Think Matt Schaub will want to throw the ball 40 times in January in a cold, snowy Gillette Stadium? Think again. Built around Arian Foster on offense and JJ Watt on defense, Houston should have no problem securing the No.1 seed in the AFC, which would guarantee them home field throughout the playoffs. Assuming the Texans wrap up the top seed, the last outdoor game they will play will be December 10 in New England, especially important to a team used to playing in a dome. If you are a Texans fan, book your flight for New Orleans (but make sure it is refundable).

Weaknesses: Playing from behind

In their only loss of the season, the Texans fell behind 14-0, and were down 21-7 to the Packers halfway through the second quarter. Being down early, the Texans couldn’t establish the run game and had to catch up through the air. Arian Foster totaled only 29 yards on 17 carries, both season lows. If Houston is going to make it all the way to Super Bowl XLVII in New Orleans, they are going to need to get the lead early.

Second Half Outlook

With two of their final three games against AFC South rival Indianapolis, the Texans’ only serious threat to its division crown is Andrew Luck’s Colts. Houston cannot get complacent with just being in the playoffs. The upstart Colts will have a lot to say in who wins the division, and the last three games of the season could determine the winner. Houston needs to keep their foot on the gas the second half of the season to ensure they win the AFC South.

Indianapolis Colts (5-3): B+

Strengths: Andrew Luck and leadership

Wow. After matching their win total from last season in their first four games, and eclipsing it in their sixth, it would be fair to say the Colts are playing with some serious swag. Riding a three-game win streak and playing Jacksonville on Thursday night, the Colts could be 6-3 heading into their huge Week 11 matchup at New England. The reasons? The poise and passion of Andrew Luck, not only showcasing his skill set each week, but raising the level of play of everyone around him. Reggie Wayne, thought to be on his way out, is having a career renaissance, leading the NFL in receiving yards. The other reason is head coach Chuck Pagano, who has been recently diagnosed with leukemia. While he has been in the hospital receiving treatment, the Colts have played with passion and emotion, keeping their playoff hopes alive. Look for Indianapolis to be in the mix for one of the AFC Wild Card spots.

Weaknesses: Rushing game

Quite the opposite from Houston, Indianapolis ranks in the bottom half of the league in rushing yards per game. With no player gaining more than 84 yards on the ground in any game this season, the Colts will need to find a solid rushing attack if they are to advance anywhere in the playoffs. Andrew Luck has been phenomenal, but counting on a rookie to throw for 300+ yards every game is foolish. With starter Donald Brown still sidelined with a balky knee, backups Vick Ballard and Delone Carter will need to shoulder the load.

Second Half Outlook

This season is already a success by many standards, but the Colts have no intentions of stopping now. With the AFC playoff race wide open, Indianapolis has positioned themselves favorably for one of the wild card spots. A manageable second half schedule gives them games against the Bills, Titans, and Chiefs within a three-week span. The Colts will need to win all of these, along with at least one of their two remaining games against Houston to start thinking playoffs.

Tennessee Titans (3-6): C+

 

Strengths: Chris Johnson and close games

There hasn’t been a lot to be excited about this year in Tennessee this year, with running back Chris Johnson being the lone bright spot on offense. Although he started the season slow (okay, REALLY slow), he has picked it up of late, rushing for 526 yards in his past 4 games. Another reason to believe in the Titans is their record in games decided by one touchdown or less. If they can keep the game close, their early season record in these games, which is 3-1 (including two overtime games), shows that they will come out on top.  

Weaknesses: Defense and staying healthy

The Titans’ defense is bad to say the least. The defense has allowed 30+ points in all but two games this season, and has surrendered 38+ points on four occasions. If Tennessee is even going to think about a second half run, their 30^th ranked defense must improve. This team has also been bitten by the injury bug on both sides of the ball. With injuries to starting quarterback Jake Locker, number-one wide receiver Kenny Britt, and safety Michael Griffin, among others, the Titans haven’t had their best team on the field this season. With tough games against Miami, Houston, Indianapolis, and Green Bay on the horizon, Titans fans should be looking toward next year.

Second Half Outlook

As previously mentioned, the Titans have a nasty second half schedule, playing Miami, Houston, and Indianapolis in three of their next four games. If Jake Locker can come back and play at a high level, and Chris Johnson can continue his hot play of late, Tennessee could have a lot of say in who wins this division.

Jacksonville Jaguars (1-7): D 

Strengths: Rushing game and youth

If you are Jaguars fan, I apologize. The team is 1-7, might be moving to London, and has their best player out for a few weeks. The glimmer of hope for the Jaguars is their youth. On a roster that is home to only eight players in their 30’s, there are twenty-seven players 25-years-old or younger. This youth will be critical to Jacksonville’s future, and if they can develop these players into solid, NFL role players, the Jags could climb to the top of the division in the coming years.

Weaknesses: Offense and Defense

If your two weaknesses are offense and defense, you need some help. The Jags rank at the bottom of the league in passing and rushing offense and defense, and come in dead last in total offense and passing offense. Second-year quarterback Blaine Gabbert has not taken the next step, and rookie wide receiver Justin Blackmon has failed to make the immediate impact past rookies AJ Green and Julio Jones have. It doesn’t help that star running back Maurice Jones-Drew went down with a foot injury a few weeks ago, but Blackmon, and especially Gabbert, don’t have time to make any excuses. In his second year, Gabbert is running out of time to prove he can cut it.

Second Half Outlook

Mark your calendar for April 25, 2013. That is the date of the NFL draft. The Jaguars are tied with Kansas City for the worst record in the league, and are on a fast track one of the top picks in the draft. With a lot of holes to fill on both sides of the ball, Jacksonville won’t be making any noise this year. 

The Curious Case of Christopher Johnson

Chris Johnson continues to struggle in his second season after becoming the highest paid running back in the NFL

(AP Photo/Jim Mone)

By Jeremy Philipson

In the movie "The Curious Case of Benjamin Button," the main character is born as an old man and gets younger as he lives his life.

This process of regression is what the Tennessee Titans’ star running back is experiencing. Ever since his record breaking 2009 season, Chris Johnson has been on a steady decline. Johnson has gone from 2,006 yards in 2009, to 1,364 yards in 2010, to just 1,047 a year ago, and is on pace for only 800 yards this year. Many believe he has lost his vision, quickness, or even his passion for the game. So what is wrong with Chris Johnson?

When the Titans played the Steelers on Thursday Night Football this past week, play-by-play analyst Mike Mayock detailed why Johnson was not living up to his “CJ2K” nickname. Mayock showed that Johnson was dancing around at the line of scrimmage too much. Instead of taking four, five, or six-yard gains, he was trying to break every run for a long touchdown, even if it meant losing yards.

To be fair, following up a season with over 2,000 rushing yards is difficult, at best. By NFL standards, Johnson had another solid year in 2010, with 1,364 yards (fourth among running backs) and 11 TDs. After proving his worth the past two seasons, CJ2K wanted more money. He was due only $1.065 million in 2011, a paltry amount for such a productive player. So, he held out. All the way until September 1, when the Titans made him the highest paid running back with a four-year, $53.5 million extension, with $30 million guaranteed.

After missing all of training camp, Johnson had a disappointing season, rushing for just over 1,000 yards, barely half of his total from two years earlier. Many called that season a fluke, and believed that a full regiment of off-season workouts, in addition to participating in all of training camp, was just what was needed for Johnson to get track. Instead, the wheels have come off the track, and he has posted only 301 yards on 92 carries through 6 games this year.

Another way to look at the demise of Chris Johnson is through the fantasy scope. After leading the NFL in fantasy scoring during his historic 2009 season with 329 points, Johnson scored more than 100 fewer points the following season, and tallied only 168 fantasy points in 2011, good for sixteenth among running backs. Even this year, many fantasy players drafted Johnson with a high pick, hoping he would return to his Pro Bowl form.

Some thought it was an aberration. Others believed it was the beginning of a great career. No matter what you believed, there was no denying that Chris Johnson’s 2009 season of 2,006 rushing yards was anything but incredible. These next few seasons will determine if Johnson is truly elite, or if he was just a flash in a pan.